Greece will return to the investment grade group of countries as early as this summer, according to estimates by Citigroup, that projects Fitch Ratings to perform a double-notch upgrading on July 24 at the agency’s next assessment of the Greek economy.
This explains last week’s Citigroup estimate about the inclusion of Greek bonds in the quantitative easing program (QE) of the European Central Bank by the end of this year.
Fitch upgraded Greece’s rating last month to bring it just two notches below investment grade, the first among the four main rating agencies to bring Greek so close to exiting junk status.
Citigroup, that has prioritized the Greek bond market for this year, is therefore improving its estimate on the country’s bonds for 2020, expecting their yield spread with the German Bund to drop to 90 basis points at the end of the year, down from a previous estimate for 100 b.p.
It also anticipates that the yields of the Greek government bonds will drop below that of the Italian bonds as of the third quarter of the year, while the spread with the US bond yields will also drop to negative levels, at -65 b.p.