The Turkish regime has traditionally been pervaded by a fear of encirclement, a fear that was partly real, and partly an excuse to preserve and legitimize the privileged position enjoyed by the armed forces and to justify its massive armaments programs.

Within that perception of threats on the country’s entire perimeter, the Turkish generals had worked out the doctrine of “two and a half wars.” The content of this military doctrine was that the Turkish armed forces had to be ready to wage war on its eastern and western borders, as well as carry out counter-guerrilla operations in Kurdish areas in the southeast of the country.

Since then, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge. The Kurkish Workers’ Party (PKK) has laid down its arms and the Kurdish problem is now a political issue.

Greek-Turkish rapprochement, despite the hurdles Ankara has occasionally placed in its path and despite the problems that still remain, has established a climate of detente in bilateral relations. A similar atmosphere has prevailed in Syrian-Turkish relations since the expulsion of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan from Damascus.

According to unconfirmed press reports, the new Turkish defense doctrine has partly incorporated these developments. The supposed threats from Greece and Syria have been downgraded and the emphasis has shifted to Iran and Iraq. In reality, the Turkish regime is deeply concerned about the possibility of a Kurdish state being established in northern Iraq. It has frequently expressed strong displeasure at the close cooperation between the USA and the Kurds, which is why it does not approve of the planned attack against Iraq. Washington has assured Ankara that it does not intend to further these plans, but it is clear that this is where things are going. Turkey believes that the foundation of a Kurdish state will induce its own destabilization, in the sense that it would function as a reference point for separatist trends among its own Kurdish population.

If the reports are true, the new defense doctrine will be a positive factor in Greek-Turkish relations, if they are followed by practical measures. Ankara’s real intentions will soon become evident, in its submission or not to the temptation of trying to prevent Cyprus’s scheduled accession to the European Union.