By Petros Papaconstantinou

The deadly wildfires and the snap elections at home have naturally deflected attention from political developments in neighboring Turkey. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Erdogan’s election triumph and Gul’s presidential win – a fact that did not go down well with the military – are a turning point for Turkey and have created a new context for Greek foreign policy. The fact that the double election was trouble-free is a positive sign for the Turkish people who want to get rid of their outdated constitution. It’s also positive for Greece, as a dual power structure in Ankara would have a paralyzing effect and damage bilateral ties. That said, we should not be misled into thinking that Turkey has overnight turned into a spotless democracy spared of previous expansionist tendencies – an image that many Europeans have been surprisingly willing to buy.

Even though the ball is no longer in the court of the security establishment, the military will not go down without a fight as regards any constitutional overhaul. Moreover, one cannot ignore the fact that Gul won the race with the backing of the MHP nationalist party. Most importantly, there is nothing to suggest that Turkey’s foreign policy can escape from the dangerous swing between insecurity and expansionism, always boosted by the unchecked developments in Iraq.

If Erdogan really wanted to convince the Europeans that they are dealing with a new Turkey, he would have to provide full protection of minority rights, lift the casus belli against Greece and finally recognize the Republic of Cyprus. As for EU governments, one would expect more pressure on Turkey to respect European values. After the double vote in Turkey, there is no more of the – anyway controversial – alibi that they don’t wish to add extra pressure on an Erdogan faced with an antagonistic military.