Letter from Thessaloniki

Fearing the buffalo or the bear?

Turks fish over a bridge in Istanbul with a view of the Yeni Camii ‘New Mosque’ and the Turkish flag. In an effort to stop the stumbling of its European Union entry talks, Turkey told EU officials that it would open one of its ports as well as one airport to Cyprus, but only on the condition that the breakaway north, occupied by Turkey since 1974 and recognized by no government but Ankara, be opened to international trade. The last-minute Turkish offer was criticized by the Greek Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Giorgos Koumoutsakos, as ‘an old package in new wrapping.’

By Spyros Payiatakis

The eminent persons from Ankara made a gallant try, but did not succeed.

Greece and Cyprus were not convinced to accept Turkey’s proposal to open one of its ports plus an airport to Cyprus for one year as long as a comprehensive solution to the Cyprus problem could be found within those 12 months. This proposal was offered in return for a new start on reunification talks for the divided island.

The trick was that Ankara set the condition that the illegal state in northern Cyprus be allowed to trade with the world without any control from Nicosia. The breakaway state would then have gained legitimacy.

Cyprus, an EU member state, has been divided since 1974, when Turkish troops invaded and occupied 37 percent of its territory. Until last week Turkey, a country aspiring to join the EU, vehemently refused to implement the EU-Turkey Customs Union Protocol by opening its ports and airports to Cyprus.

The last-minute Turkish offer was criticized by the Greek Foreign Ministry’s spokesman, Giorgos Koumoutsakos, as “an old package in new wrapping.”

Meanwhile Finland, the EU country currently holding the bloc’s rotating presidency, described Ankara’s proposal as “not enough.”

As things stand now, it seems likely that one would believe that Greece and Turkey are doomed to cooperate.

They are not. No. We are merely doomed to confront each other over the battlements of two different ideas, about what is right and wrong, who owns what, and whose official anger is more threatening.

Well, at least until some other foreign power frightens us both.

The respective prime ministers Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Costas Karamanlis both spoke last week with US President George W. Bush. Reportedly, Bush repeated several times that he wanted to see Turkey in the European Union.

The scenario reminds me of a silent old Western movie in which a man chased into a narrow ravine by a buffalo is confronted by a brown bear. Some fear the buffalo even more than they do the bear.

As for the politicians in both countries, they are too entrenched in the system to try and change it.

As matters now stand, is there a way out?

The truth is that the people of both countries are now dominated and driven by two kinds of officially propagated fear: fear of terrorism and fear of income tax.

A few days ago, even by its own heady standards, the Istanbul Stock Market (IMKB) went crazy. The news that the Turkish government was about to open one port and one airport to Cyprus was received well by the stock exchange. It seemed that investors in Turkey have got the impression that the latest development has played into the hands of Turkey.

On Friday the stock index rose by 4.38 percent and reached 39,858 points. However there were those – mainly ardent nationalists – who interpreted this rapid rise as “Cyprus slipping out of their hands,” as the daily Zaman reported. Others fear that events might deter foreigners from putting money back into Turkey.

Even before the foreign ministers prepared to meet this morning to decide on the future of Turkey’s accession talks, there were rumors about all sorts of alleged sanctions.

To be sure, sanctions have a dismal record. They are a legitimate way of expressing distaste or despair, but they rarely change the things that cause those feelings. Yet they remain one of the few extensions of diplomacy available to government short of war. And war has always been the principle threat in the past. But now?

A prediction for this weekend: Be grateful that Dora Bakoyannis’s smile is not all toothpaste and Prime Minister Erdogan’s teeth are not, after all, made of steel.

Maybe the real problem is not necessarily between Greece and Turkey. Perhaps Italy’s minister of international trade and European affairs, Ms Emma Bonino, was right when she said a few days ago that Turkey’s tribulations are not really because of Cyprus and its ports and airfields, but because of the country’s large and overwhelmingly young and Muslim population.

“What irritates Europeans mostly is its inhabitants worshipping Allah,” she noted while attending a Conference of European Liberal Democrats in Brussels.

Until now Karamanlis and Erdogan got along well with each other. The question is whether the arrangements to be made this week will come out to favor Turkey or Greece.

My money’s on Greece.