By Petros Papaconstantinou

Terrorist attack or act of provocation? The question hangs over Turkey after the deadly suicide bombing in Ankara late Tuesday. Both scenarios are plausible. Turkish authorities suspect Kurdish separatist groups. The PKK ended its unilateral ceasefire on May 18 and a spectacular strike had been widely expected. Last summer, the Kurdistan Liberation Hawks claimed responsibility for a series of bomb attacks in Turkish resorts. In addition, memories are still fresh of the November 2005 bomb attack against a bookstore in Semdinli that was initially blamed on PKK guerrillas before allegations were made that the act was committed by the army’s intelligence arm. Two soldiers were sentenced to prison terms of 39 years but an appeals court recently overturned the ruling.

At all events, the Kurdish problem appears to be the army’s strongest card in its bid to prevent the Islamic AKP from gaining reelection. Firstly, because people tend to look for an iron hand to counter the threat of terror and, secondly, because Kurds are indeed seen as a major threat. The sight of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice posing in front of a Kurdish flag next to Masoud Barzani, president of the autonomous Kurdish administration in northern Iraq, did not go down well in Turkey. Particularly because Barzani has announced plans to hold a referendum on the status of the oil-rich Kirkuk region. Turkey’s security establishment sees the Kurdish threat as a chance to prove its nationalist credentials. Retired General Edip Baser said recently that the trilateral US-Turkish-Iraqi effort against the PKK would be ineffective because of Washington’s reluctance to help Ankara. Ironically, the Americans, who had for decades supported the army as a bulwark against the Soviet Union and Arab nationalism, now risk seeing their former allies setting alight the only Iraqi region under US control.