Karamanlis visit set to boost Turkey ties

But foreign policy hot potatoes Cyprus and Aegean still being juggled despite progress in economic issues, analysts say

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks during the inauguration of the Greek-Turkish natural gas pipeline in Evros, northeastern Greece, last November.

By Fulya Ozerkan and Serkan Demirtas - Turkish Daily News

ANKARA – Prime Minster Costas Karamanlis begins his visit to Turkey today, the first official trip to Ankara by a Greek prime minister in almost half a century, a move that signals the thaw in once strained relations between the two rivals. His uncle Constantine was the last person to visit Turkey as Greek prime minister in May 1959.

This long-awaited visit has been continuously postponed since August 2005 but Karamanlis has visited Turkey on several occasions in the past in an unofficial capacity, given his close friendship with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. In 2004, Karamanlis acted as a witness at the wedding of Erdogan’s daughter, leading to rumors that a “wedding diplomacy” had been launched between Ankara and Athens.

The hostility between the two countries stems from history; Ottoman Turks occupied and ruled Greece for more than 300 years. After a long and bloody struggle, and with the aid of imperialist powers, independence was finally granted to Greece by the Treaty of Constantinople in July 1832. It was the beginning of an era when the Greeks started dreaming of recapturing the sacred Anatolia, homeland of the ancient Greek civilization. Greece occupied Turkey’s western Anatolia but lost the war in 1922, which led to the foundation of the modern Turkish Republic.

Bilateral ties were not problematic at the very beginning of the post-Ottoman period: Turkey’s hero and the founding father of the republic, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, and Greece’s Eleftherios Venizelos launched peace talks to create a climate of friendship through dialogue. Relations went downhill again after World War II and went into crisis later, particularly over the Cyprus standoff.

Turkey and Greece challenged one another on almost every international platform, as well as at NATO and European Union meetings. This process continued until the end of the 1990s but successive earthquakes on the two sides of the Aegean sparked a rapprochement that resulted in escalating economic and political ties.

Economic cooperation, and particularly Greek investments in Turkey’s banking sector, in recent years is seen as another symbol of a new era in the two countries’ relations. In 2005, the trade volume between the two countries was $1.4 billion, while in 2006 this figure almost doubled, reaching $2.7 billion. The fact that Karamanlis is scheduled to participate in the Turkish-Greek Business Forum in Turkey’s commercial hub Istanbul reveals the current dimension of trade ties. Some 229 Greek companies operate in Turkey.

Energy is becoming a major area of further cooperation. In November, the two prime ministers met on their common border and inaugurated a natural gas pipeline that will later be extended to Italy as part of an extensive network transferring Central Asian gas to Europe via Turkey. Plus, the two countries signed a protocol in 2007 to exchange power from their electricity grids, a development that marks closer cooperation in the energy sector.

But despite the positive momentum generated by this latest visit, the Erdogan-Karamanlis friendship and closer economic ties, thorny issues on the diplomatic front remain in place, notably the issue of Cyprus and sovereignty over the Aegean Sea.

Analysts say improvement in economic ties is far from creating a trustworthy climate amid increasing violations in the Aegean, both at sea and in the air, and abortive consultations between the two countries’ diplomats for a solution to a series of political hurdles.

“Although the Turkish government aims for a vision-oriented approach and progress in ties via small steps, violations in the Aegean are continuing and political consultations are proving futile,” said Sema Tezel, an expert on Turkish-Greek relations at the Ankara-based think tank Eurasian Strategic Studies Center (ASAM).

Tezel said 76 violations took place in 2007 and Greece infringed Turkish territorial waters and air space over the Aegean in 74 of these cases. “Off the deserted islands of Kardak (Imia), Greece went into Turkish waters 33 times in December 2007 alone, while this number was seven in the same month of 2006,” she added.

Turkey and Greece came to the brink of war over Kardak in 1996 but the two improved relations after a devastating earthquake struck Turkey on August 17, 1999, with Greece being one of the first countries to extend a helping hand to the victims. This solidarity has continued since then with regular talks on both political and military levels. Ankara and Athens established a hotline between their air forces and armies after a Greek pilot died when his jet collided in 2006 with a Turkish fighter in one of the dogfights that frequently occur over the Aegean. The foreign ministers of both countries announced additional confidence-building measures during the recent visit by Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan in order to boost military cooperation to end the standoffs.

Despite the political rapprochement and accelerated economic ties, Turkish-Greek military ties are not encouraging. There are concerns that Karamanlis’s visit could be overshadowed by unilateral acts in the Aegean that could cause unwanted incidents, just like in 2005 during then Foreign Minister Petros Molyviatis’s trip to Ankara. Even though Greece dropped to fourth place in Turkey’s list of potential threats, there isn’t a day without military conflict in the Aegean. The Turkish chief of general staff accuses the Greek navy of violating Turkey’s territorial waters and Greek jets of preventing Turkish warplanes from flying over international air space in written statements posted on its website almost every day.

Behind Karamanlis’s abstention from an official visit lies Turkey’s unchanged position of viewing the extension of Greek territorial waters as “casus belli.” But what has prompted the Greek leader to reconsider the resistance stance of the past? In September 2007, New Democracy came to power for a second term and re-elected Karamanlis. New Democracy managed to secure a narrow majority of 152 out of 300 seats in the parliament. Tezel said the election outcome narrowed Karamanlis’s room to maneuver and that’s why he might have chosen to take bolder steps as regards Turk-Greek ties.

Athens backs Turkey’s aspirations to join the EU but this support is not unconditional. Greece calls for further improvements on a number of issues, including Greek minority rights and their foundations in Turkey. Analysts say Greek demands in return for advocating Ankara’s EU bid are an apparent sign of insincerity.

Progress in the political field remains to be seen in the days ahead but Karamanlis’s visit appears more a move to boost the prestige of the Turkish government as the host of the first Greek prime minister in nearly 50 years rather than reaching common ground toward the resolution of bilateral disagreements.

Fulya Ozerkan is the diplomatic reporter and Serkan Demirtas is the news editor for the Turkish Daily News.