EU pats on the back won’t do

Ankara is reluctant to make ‘irreversible moves’ before it can be certain of its membership prospects

Turkish honor guards take their positions in front of the mausoleum of Kemal Ataturk, founder of modern Turkey, in Ankara yesterday. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chief of General Staff Hilmi Ozkok visited the mausoleum yesterday. If Erdogan submits to EU rules for Turkey’s entry to the bloc, it could prove politically costly at a time of rising nationalism.

By Burak Bekdil - Kathimerini English Edition

After much speculation, Turkey did not surprise anyone in the way its government signed the critical protocol extending its customs union agreement to new European Union members, including Cyprus.

The signing and accompanying declaration that emphasized this extension of the protocol did not mean Turkey's de facto recognition of Cyprus illustrate both growing Turkish suspicion about its eventual EU membership and its less than wholehearted efforts to enter the EU.

For different reasons, both the government and state establishment in Ankara have become less eager in their EU efforts, as membership prospects have grown gloomier over the past few months and opposition to Turkish membership is expected to increase within most of Europe in the years ahead.

The government is less enthusiastic for a number of reasons. First, it has realized membership will not aid its Islamist agenda. For instance, it cannot remove the headscarf ban citing freedom of expression after the European Court of Human Rights ruled that states can ban conspicuous religious symbols on public premises. Secondly, membership will not advance the government's anti-secular agenda. And, finally, submission to an increasingly hostile Europe could be politically costly at a time when nationalism appears to be growing in the country.

The state bureaucracy is also increasingly less enthusiastic about Turkey joining the EU. Bureaucrats are suspicious of EU intentions regarding Turkish membership, and with good reason in the last few months as many EU countries have voiced doubts about Turkey as a prospective member. There is also an established policy in a very important office building in Ankara which rules out concessions on sensitive issues (like Cyprus) in expectation of EU pats on the back.

All this was echoed in the declaration accompanying the signing of the protocol. Ankara calculated it would be compromise enough not to make the declaration part of the protocol (and, instead, made it a separate attachment), so the declaration would be a fine litmus test to gauge EU intentions: If Cyprus and/or the EU jumps on it as a nice pretext to veto/stall/postpone membership talks due for October 3, that will justify the «suspicion» and push Turkey off course. If not, the show will go on. In many ways, for Ankara, the declaration is a good opportunity to measure the other's candor.

The Greek Cypriots have a point when they say the Turkish position is an «institutional paradox,» but it is also a reality that Ankara is reluctant to make «irreversible moves» before it can rely on its membership prospects.

The road to October 3 will certainly not be a smooth one. The EU must still unanimously approve a negotiating mandate for the talks before that date, giving Nicosia a potential veto. In theory, member states can make unpleasant conditions/additions to the mandate, on issues such as the Aegean disputes or «privileged partnership.»

The odds are against the veto/stall/postpone scenario for reasons of realpolitik. A bold and hostile move by the EU will only result in Brussels losing its power to influence Ankara.

It will not only reinforce nationalistic elements in Turkey but also risk destabilizing a neighboring and grossly unpredictable country. Now it's time the EU ideologues chose between keeping Turkey anchored westward or writing off the country entirely by ending an already too fragile relationship.

A challenge will also be bad news for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose popular support - in addition to his party's Islamist grassroots - originates in a nation disillusioned with future EU jobs with fat salaries and welfare. If for any reason membership negotiations fail to take off on October 3, Turkey's political map may change radically - and not necessarily to the EU's liking.

Or, trying this argument in reverse, the EU has nothing to lose if it opens membership talks with Turkey as scheduled.