Tensions do not bode well for premier’s Turkey trip

Athens fears ‘provocation’ but no shift expected in Ankara’s stance

Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis speaks during the inauguration last November of the Greek-Turkish natural gas pipeline in Evros, the biggest business deal Greece and Turkey have ever made.

By Niki Kitsantonis - Kathimerini English Edition

A few months ago the prospect of a visit by Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis to Ankara – the first official trip by a Greek premier to Turkey in half a century – was seen as an ideal opportunity for rapprochement. The fact that Karamanlis is a friend of Turkey’s PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan was an added bonus.

But interest in Athens appeared to have fizzled out yesterday as Karamanlis prepared to depart for what was supposed to be a landmark visit.

The mood in Ankara, according to Turkish analysts, was much the same.

“I don’t think much will come out of the visit – only a few cosmetics to convince the Greek public that Karamanlis did not travel to Ankara for nothing,” said Burak Bekdil, an Ankara-based journalist and commentator. Bekdil predicted “some non-essential progress but no breakthrough on any of the difficult issues.”

Greek diplomats say they expect no developments on major issues like the delineation of the continental shelf and the division of Cyprus. Presumably Turkey’s historical insistence on established stances is the reason for this. Bekdil said Ankara would stand firm on sensitive issues again: “The government is in consensus with the state establishment to remain rigid on issues such as the non-Muslim foundations, non-Muslim minorities, territorial disputes, the Halki school and the recognition of the ecumenical patriarch,” he said.

So what is the point of the Greek PM’s visit if all crucial issues are non-negotiable?

Sources in Athens said yesterday that the trip was “a response to Erdogan’s visit to Greece in 2004” and that its aim was “to improve political relations following a boost in economic ties.”

But Turkish authorities see things the other way around, according to Bekdil. “In the AKP (ruling Justice and Development Party), commerce – especially finance and energy – is seen as the best lubricant for smoother foreign policy in the neighborhood,” he said.

Bekdil cited Turkey’s stance opposite Baghdad, noting the recent pledge by President Abdullah Gul to boost trade with northern Iraq ten-fold if the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is disbanded. “The same applies to Greece... Gul believes that all these (bilateral) troubles will fade away if there are tens of billions of dollars crossing the borders,” Bekdil said. It is unlikely that Athens would welcome such a scenario, however much it invests in Turkey or in joint ventures with Turkey, such as the recently inaugurated natural gas pipeline. There are still too many “loose ends” – the Aegean dispute and Cyprus topping the list. Indeed, the Aegean is a foremost concern in Athens ahead of Karamanlis’s visit. Diplomats are on standby to tackle a response to a likely “provocation” by Turkey during the visit.

And there is a good reason for this. Tensions have been growing over the past weeks as Turkish authorities accuse Greek fishermen of territorial violations off the islets of Imia. A standoff between Greek and Turkish coast guard vessels in the same area in April 2005 led to then Foreign Minister Petros Molyviatis cutting short a visit to Ankara. Greece and Turkey nearly went to war over Imia in 1996. So the concerns are justified. It will be interesting to see how Karamanlis reacts in the event of a skirmish at sea.

But it is not only the traditional Aegean jousting that has disturbed Greeks. Recent comments by Erdogan – on Cyprus and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) – have twisted two thorns in the side of Greek diplomacy. Turkey’s premier expressed his support for Skopje over Athens on the “Macedonia” name dispute and said the European Union had been wrong to admit Cyprus ahead of a settlement. It is unlikely though that these issues will be broached during Karamanlis’s talks with Erdogan where – Bekdil predicts – “everyone will hide behind nice words.”