Rival Cyprus leaders set for big peace push

Mediators pin hopes on personal chemistry

AFP	AFP

Cyprus President Demetris Christofias (left) and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat (right) are set to meet tomorrow in a fresh bid for a peace deal.

NICOSIA (AFP) - Rival Cypriot leaders meet tomorrow to launch intensive negotiations on reunifying the Mediterranean island amid hopes they can succeed where three decades of diplomacy have failed.

President Dimitris Christofias, a Greek Cypriot, and Turkish Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat will meet at the defunct Nicosia airport in the UN-controlled buffer zone that divides the island. The two have agreed to establish a secure hotline to facilitate direct phone contact during the intensive talks process which is expected to see them meet at least once a week.

The negotiation process has an open-ended timeline but the UN has warned that the talks cannot go on indefinitely without tangible progress being made along the way.

Preparatory talks which began in March have been accompanied by confidence-building measures, notably the opening of a crossing in Ledra Street linking south and north in the symbolic heart of Nicosia. It is the first intensive push for peace since a UN reunification plan was approved by Turkish Cypriots but overwhelmingly rejected by Greek Cypriots shortly before the island's accession to the EU in 2004. Optimists are pinning their hopes on the personal chemistry and shared left-wing politics of the two leaders.

Christofias, who heads the communist AKEL party, was elected in February on a platform of relaunching peace efforts. Talat, who heads the leftist Republican Turkish Party, led the Turkish Cypriot yes vote in 2004.

«There are good indications of a change in attitude,» veteran commentator Sofronis Sofroniou told AFP.

«Everybody realizes this is a rare case where both sides see eye to eye. Both Talat and Christofias have a similar background.» But Sofroniou warned that, with Turkey retaining an estimated 40,000 troops in the breakaway north of the island, neither leader has an entirely free hand in hammering out a deal. «I was impressed by Talat's confidence that there would be a solution within three months. I think that's rather hopeful,» he said.

«If it were up to Talat, there might be a solution but the question lies with Ankara. What are their plans? One doesn't know and they most probably don't know themselves.» University of Nicosia associate professor for international relations Hubert Faustmann said he feared the gulf in expectations between Ankara and the Greek Cypriots was likely to overwhelm the good intentions for a settlement.

«The chances for a solution of the Cyprus problem might be better than ever - but unfortunately that doesn't mean they are good,» Faustmann told AFP. «There is still a 30 percent chance of success but if I had to bet money on it I wouldn't bet on a successful outcome.» Faustmann said that Greek Cypriot fears over Turkey's treaty rights to station troops on the island and intervene to maintain the status quo remained a major stumbling block to a settlement.

«Concessions will have to be made on Turkey's military presence and intervention right,» Faustmann told AFP.

«Turkey will need something in return to give this up, such as EU membership, but I can't see the EU making this concession to Turkey,» he said. Any agreement the leaders reach will then have to be sold to the two communities in simultaneous referendums.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon has appointed former Australian foreign minister Alexander Downer as his special envoy to oversee the negotiations. He will be present when talks are officially launched at UN Chief of Mission Taye-Brook Zerihoun's residence at the Nicosia compound.

«I came back here with a degree of optimism because I know that the leadership is committed to a successful negotiation process,» Downer told reporters on his arrival in Cyprus yesterday. «I have no illusions on how difficult this is but in any case I am looking forward to it.»