Friday October 24, 2014 Search
Weather | Athens
19o C
12o C
News
Business
Comment
Life
Sports
Community
Survival Guide
Greek Edition
Weighing all the factors

By Alexis Papachelas

Certain people in the know continue to believe that snap elections will take place in the fall. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is obviously aware of this trend, which is why he told Parliament a few days ago that early elections are out of the question and that the 180 votes needed in the 300-seat House to elect a new president will be found. Samaras has a lot of decisions to make by the end of September and he needs to weigh a lot of different factors when making them.

First of all the tourism season needs to go well this summer in order to generate some optimism regarding its effects on the economy, unemployment and overall morale. The first public opinion polls will begin emerging after the end of the summer, giving some indication of which way voters are leaning. It is also around then that the troika will complete its fifth and final evaluation of the economy and give its final recommendations, before the start of debt relief talks.

The prime minister will also have to see whether the troika will push for more changes to the social security system, to labor issues and to civil servant salaries or choose to ease the pressure on the government. Much will also depend on whether the power vacuum until the new European Commission is appointed in October affects the debt talks and where will the International Monetary Fund will stand.

The only crucial factor that cannot be predicted yet is the outcome of the stress tests scheduled for the country’s banks, which will be published in November at the earliest. Their importance should not be overlooked, as the number that emerges for lenders’ capital requirements will determine how much room the government has to negotiate in the debt talks and will also directly influence investor and political sentiment.

If all goes well – that is if the troika backs off, morale is boosted and Parliament approves all pending prior actions – the whole matter of the government’s continued survival will come down to independent deputies and whether they will back the government’s presidential candidate or not. Their decision will certainly be influenced by polls, the overall climate in the market and the tone of negotiations with the troika. It will obviously be much easier for them to back to government’s horse if the country’s creditors confirm that Greece will not longer be subject to the terms of a new memorandum.

There are no easy decisions ahead for Samaras. There are those who will advise him that if it starts to look like things are going awry, if the troika demands measures that cannot possibly pass through Parliament or if the 180 votes for president are not collected, then the only option is early elections in October and November, possibly accompanied by a serious clash with the country’s creditors.

ekathimerini.com , Sunday Jul 27, 2014 (17:16)  
Tension for tension’s sake?
Testing ground
Defusing a crisis
PM needs to step up
Greek private workers´ union calls 24-hour strike for November 27
The country's umbrella union representing workers in the private sector, known by its Greek acronym GSEE, on Friday called a 24-hour strike for November 27 to protest austerity measures bein...
Finance Minister appeals for support for amendments ahead of vote
Finance Minister Gikas Hardouvelis on Friday called on MPs across the political spectrum to support a series of legislative amendments proposed by his ministry, including a recommendation to...
Inside News
ECB bank assessment to show 6-billion-euro capital gap, Citi says
The euro area’s biggest banks will show a 6 billion-euro ($7.6 billion) capital gap in the European Central Bank’s tests of the quality of their assets and ability to withstand economic shoc...
ECB vies for third time lucky in European stress tests
For the European Central Bank, success as the euro area’s financial supervisor may begin this weekend with a few failures. At noon in Frankfurt on October 26, investors will learn which of t...
Inside Business
SOCCER
Panathinaikos snatches point at Eindhoven
Panathinaikos offered its fans a glimpse of its glorious past in European competitions snatching a draw at PSV Eindhoven, on an otherwise bad night for Greek soccer in the Europa League, as ...
BASKETBALL
Greens succumb to first loss at Bayern
Panathinaikos’s unbeaten run in all competitions came an end on Thursday as the Greek champion lost 81-75 at Bayern Munich for the Euroleague. Bayern is a team that improves every year, and ...
Inside Sports
SPONSORED LINK: FinanzNachrichten.de
SPONSORED LINK: BestPrice.gr
 RECENT NEWS
1. Greek private workers´ union calls 24-hour strike for November 27
2. Finance Minister appeals for support for amendments ahead of vote
3. Credit line only open to Greece if it meets economic targets, sources say
4. ECB bank assessment to show 6-billion-euro capital gap, Citi says
5. Venizelos slams Turkey for ´flagrant violation of international law´ off Cyprus
6. ECB vies for third time lucky in European stress tests
more news
Today
This Week
1. Woman killed in tram accident in Floisvo, south of Athens
2. Clocks to go back 1 hour on Sunday
3. ECB vies for third time lucky in European stress tests
4. Cyprus GDP upgrade seen as boosting bailout exit plans
5. Venizelos slams Turkey for 'flagrant violation of international law' off Cyprus
6. Cyprus president to be released from hospital on Friday following readmission
Today
This Week
1. The past, present and future of the Greek debt crisis
2. Greece’s closed society is central to its current malaise
3. Coalition shooting itself in the foot
4. Greece must stick to reforms, says Schaeuble
5. At least 11 banks to fail European stress tests, three in Greece, report says
6. Cyprus to block Turkey's EU talks after EEZ violation
   Find us ...
  ... on
Twitter
     ... on Facebook   
About us  |  Subscriptions  |  Advertising  |  Contact us  |  Athens Plus  |  RSS  |   
Copyright © 2014, H KAΘHMEPINH All Rights Reserved.