For Ankara, all roads lead to Paris

France remains the only major obstacle to Turkey receiving a date for EU accession negotiations

By Burak Bekdil - Kathimerini English Edition

It was not a coincidence that British Prime Minister Tony Blair wrote an article backing Turkey’s membership of the European Union in Le Monde. With about half a year to go for the historic decision on whether to give Turkey a date to start formal membership talks, France remains the only single major obstacle.

Mr Blair argues that allowing Turkey to join the EU would help to bridge the gap between Europe and the Islamic world. According to Mr Blair, “Turkey will add a new dimension to the Union.” The rhetoric may or may not appeal to the French. But President Jacques Chirac looks as though he is in deep doubt.

In his first press conference on Europe in six years, the French leader said even if Turkey won a date to open membership negotiations, it would take 10 to 15 years for it to join the bloc. According to optimists, Mr Chirac’s statement was a hidden reference to the growing possibility of a date, which would be followed by a long period of tough talks. According to pessimists, however, the language reflected a deep suspicion in Paris of the idea of Turkish membership. Both of the contrary propositions may be right.

It is true that Mr Chirac had to talk cautiously ahead of European Parliament elections and in view of a French public still hostile to the idea of 70 million Turks — or, rather, 80 million by the time Turkey joins — in the Union. A recent opinion poll showed that 70 percent of the French public oppose Turkish membership.

Men in Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s closest circle are optimistic about a change in the French language and policy after the European elections. They recall equally hostile German thinking a couple of years earlier and the present “spring-like mood” in Berlin.

All the same, skeptics warn, everything may not actually be coming up roses with Germany. What if the Germans are ostensibly supporting Turkish membership, knowing that the French barrier will always be there? That way, the Germans could be hoping to make political gains from a large Turkish community at no real cost.

According to TAM, a Turkish studies center in Essen, Germany, the number of Turks living in the EU will reach 4.9 million by 2007, larger than the population of eight member states put together. Last year, EU Turks contributed 70.2 billion euros to the bloc’s GDP — a figure 10 times larger than the GDP of Estonia and eight times larger than that of Latvia. A microcosm of Turkey already exists in the heart of the EU!

But that’s hardly any relief to Mr Erdogan. Last week, his government sent to Parliament a package of constitutional amendments designed to persuade the EU to open the entry talks which he desperately wants. The measures include enshrining gender equality, removing military representatives from the board which supervises higher education and scrapping state security courts, which try political and security-linked crimes. They would also remove residual references to the death penalty, which Turkey has abolished in line with EU requirements.

Turkey would also allow international agreements to take precedence over domestic law when they came into conflict. In a further bid to assert civilian control over the armed forces, Parliament would in future have full control over the military budget.

But all the reform effort in Ankara is a one-way street. If reforms fail, Turkey will be denied access to talks. If they succeed, however, they may not guarantee a date for Turkey. Hence, Mr Erdogan must not only satisfy suspicious minds in Brussels but also win hearts in several EU capitals.

The trouble is that EU leaders and public opinion still do not know what to do about the Turks. For most of them, it’s best to keep Turkey at a distance, though not too far. Some, like Mr Blair, argue that Turkish membership would bring in strategic benefits. Others think that 80 million Turks in the EU could only mean trouble.

But fractured EU thinking may find some common ground by December. Almost all agree that denying Turkey a date will not benefit anyone in Turkey or in the EU. It would mean disaster for Turkey’s reformist government, a blow to transatlantic plans for the Greater Middle East Initiative, and the country may drift into new unknowns.

Besides, a date, technically speaking, does not necessarily guarantee eventual membership — although it has done so up to now. More strategically, EU advocates for a date privately think it could work as a catalyst to sort out other Turkey-related disputes i.e. the Aegean, Armenian genocide claims, et cetera.

A no-date formula, on the other hand, will strengthen nationalist elements in Turkey and naturally push Ankara into a much less compromising position when it negotiates disputes with its neighbors.

All in all, Romano Prodi, president of the European Commission, has a point when he says it’s time “the EU leaders should stop saying different things to the Turks and among themselves.”