Turkey, EU gain time to ponder

Ankara should push forward with democratic reforms regardless of its European goal

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul is welcomed in Luxembourg yesterday evening by his British counterpart Jack Straw after EU member states decided to open accession talks with Ankara.

By Burak Bekdil - Kathimerini English Edition

Once again, Turkey and the European Union have put off their deep-rooted problems - till the next act of the never-ending opera buffe. Judging from the drama on stage, it's hard to determine if the Turks are becoming Europeans, or the Europeans becoming Turks.

Although parts of Turkey may now be cheering that their dreams have come true, the truth may not warrant all the fanfare. It is not hard to see that a great deal of china was broken in the runup to the happy ending of the soap opera in Luxembourg.

No doubt there is progress, at least in «status.» So when things go from worse to worst, it will be «back to square two,» instead of «back to square one.»

While European ministers met on Sunday for the «last supper» before the most critical date in Turkish-EU history, over 60,000 nationalist Turks gathered in Ankara for what recalled Antonello Venditti's famous 1970s song, «Roma Capoccia» (Rome, the capital): Ankara, the capital! The crowds sent a coarse message to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan: Turkey is governed in Ankara, not Brussels.

The timing of the rally may look absurd, but it is not. Ironically, Turkish public support for EU membership has dropped by 16 percentage points to 57 percent since the EU agreed to open entry talks with Turkey last December.

It's time to be realistic. What can come out of a coupling if everyone's talking of divorce during the engagement ceremony? Not much, perhaps.

Since EU declarations have effectively become part of the acquis communautaire, so will the counter-declaration that calls for a 2006 review of whether Turkey has opened its ports and airports to Cypriot airplanes and vessels. That practically means the talks can be suspended in 2006.

If the dispute over ports is by some miracle resolved (if, for example, the EU were to say that granting access to the Cypriot fleet does not mean recognition; or if sanctions against Turkish Cypriots are removed) then other problematic areas will surface in 2007, or in 2008.

When over 50 percent of Europeans oppose eventual Turkish membership, the bitter truth is that «otherness» still divides Turkey and the Old Continent. Of course, this static picture could be reversed in the next decade. Still, Turkey must keep contingency plans in the likely case that its EU bid fails in the future.

Every day that adds to the «otherness» will further reduce the Turks' EU appetite, especially when Europeans play too much with explosive issues like Armenian genocide claims. The European Parliament's call for Turkey to recognize the deaths of Ottoman Armenians as genocide was a major brick in a wall that could divide Turkey and Europe for good. The wise course for Turkey is to keep up democratic reforms as if it will join the club one day, but keeping in mind that it may not, or may even join an entirely different club than the one it sees today.

In Europe, a cradle-to-grave social welfare system has been created that is not economically sustainable. Most countries are unable to create economic growth internally because it is drained away by the overburdened welfare system. Consequently, EU states must export at a furious rate. This is difficult because the more efficient economies, such as the USA and China, can out-compete them in most situations.

Thus EU states must cater to totalitarian regimes in order to export. Hence the many deals with these states to secure exports. For example, EU heavyweights intend to provide China with sophisticated weapons in return for exports. A different course, but no more edifying, is being adopted in Africa. 

Some states are still struggling with the competing ideologies that arose after World War I. It seems the socialist nationalists are currently on the rise over the nationalist socialists.

Germany is teetering on the edge. Gerhard Schroeder, for example, has, for most of his career, characterized himself as a Marxist. His coalition partners, the Greens, were a party built around one woman, Petra Kelly, until she accepted large infusions of cash from the East Germans and Soviets. Joschka Fischer's radical communist past is full of controversy, such as his alleged links with Baader-Meinhof, Libyan intelligence, and the murders of OPEC personnel in Vienna in the 1970s. 

Then there is the professed pacifism of many Europeans. In fact, the Old Continent is disarming and stepping off the world stage. Germany is reducing its armed forces almost to the levels of the post-WWI Versailles Treaty - federal aircraft levels are going down to 300 of all types.

Even Britain, which says it will stay in Iraq until the end, is in fact disarming itself to the extent that it will only be a symbolic force. London plans to be able to support only one army brigade outside Britain by 2015. Its navy will consist of only 25 small surface warfare ships plus two carriers, and the carriers may not be built. The UK is also drastically reducing its submarine fleet. Even now, Britain has only one naval vessel in the Indian Ocean. All aircraft that flew from current aircraft carriers have been withdrawn, and new ones will not come in until 2015. Even British commanding officers admit the navy is incapable of combat operations without the presence of US ships.

While the French military looks good, it is a hollow force. In the first Iraqi war the French were teamed with the US 82nd airborne division in their sweep into the western desert. The 82nd advanced faster than did the French division and was attacking from blue bird buses while the French rode in tanks and armored personnel carriers. France is the only European presence in China's neighborhood, with some small naval vessels.

With limited military capabilities at a time of global need to tackle asymmetrical threats, most of Europe will look like etatist governments that stay in power by feeding an increasingly unsupportable welfare system. That is going to be the general picture Turkey will face when time has come for membership.

What, in these circumstances, must Turkey do? Seek a bizarre alliance northward or eastward? Forget the EU entirely? Align itself with an increasingly anti-European United States? These are not really feasible or pleasant options. Turkey should stay on track, but with a good contingency plan in mind. It needs to democratize and reform for its own sake, with or without the EU.