Vote outcome dampens Bosnia’s EU prospects

Nationalists’ victories expected to put brakes on constitutional reforms

A Bosnian man waits to cross the street in front of election posters in the Bosnian town of Brcko. The nationalist parties’ victories in weekend local elections signal further ethnic divisions.

SARAJEVO (AFP) – Impressive victories by Bosnia’s nationalist parties in weekend local elections have further entrenched ethnic divisions and distanced the country from its stated goal of joining the European Union, experts say.

“These elections send the message that the country will remain in a state of perpetual crisis,” political analyst Srecko Latal said, referring to a longstanding gridlock among Bosnia’s main parties over adopting constitutional reforms and strengthening central institutions.

The reluctance comes as Bosnia faces increasing international pressure to do so, with stronger central governance critical to its EU membership prospects. In the coming years, Latal predicted, the situation “is likely to stagnate or even deteriorate further.” Partial results show the ruling nationalist parties won a sweeping victory, with Bosnian Serb Prime Minister Milorad Dodik’s Social Democrats (SNSD) nearly tripling the number of mayoral seats they held. Final results are due to be announced within a month.

Dodik’s campaign was also the most hardline, focusing on strengthening Serbs’ autonomy within ethnically divided Bosnia – and even suggesting the country’s Serb-run entity might push for independence.

Since the end of the 1992-1995 war, Bosnia has been split into two semi-independent entities: the Serb Republika Srpska (RS) and the Muslim Croat federation. They are linked by weak central institutions. Muslim and Croat nationalists – the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) and Croat Democratic Union (HDZ) – also appear to have held their positions after a campaign marked by widespread nationalistic rhetoric and near-absolute neglect of local issues.

“A lot of irresponsible statements were made during the election campaign, which are not helpful for Bosnia’s future EU integration process,” Miroslav Lajcak, the EU’s peace envoy in Bosnia, said in a statement.

Most citizens are pro-EU and Bosnia’s bid is the only issue on which all parties agree. But many politicians merely pay it lip service, some analysts say, aware that joining is a distant prospect. Bosnia signed in June a Stabilization and Association Agreement with Brussels, seen as the first step toward EU membership. However, the European Commission is likely to issue a negative judgment on its reform efforts in November, as Bosnian lawmakers stall over key changes – notably strengthening central institutions. “It is obvious that Bosnia still has many unresolved issues and that it has not matured enough to focus on requirements for its European future,” an EU diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity.

The local elections are likely to influence power shifts at higher levels of government as national leaders tackle the reforms. Bosnian Serbs are particularly opposed to losing local authority in a more centralized state. “I am afraid that little change will be possible now. Dodik is likely to remain resolute in defending the RS autonomy, especially when it comes to constitutional reform,” local political analyst Tanja Topic said.

While turnout was 55 percent for elections to elect 140 mayors and local councils in 149 municipalities, many voters appeared apathetic. “The real question is whether voters will understand before 2010 general elections that their quality of life can only improve if they gather courage to trust new leaders who can offer real solutions rather than more of the same old empty rhetoric,” said Sanel Huskic of the Sarajevo-based ACIPS think tank.

The vote marked a setback for another nationalist group, the Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina, which won only four mayoral posts after having snatched the Muslim presidency spot from the SDA in 2006. Meanwhile, the Serb Democratic Party (SDS) – founded by war crimes suspect Radovan Karadzic – won 15 mayoral posts after being all but swept away from political scene by Dodik’s SNSD in 2006. “The election result is not necessarily showing that Bosnians have chosen nationalists over the EU,” analyst Latal said. “But whenever challenged in the past, they had been more in favor of protecting their ethnic interests than any vague concept of EU integration.”