Erdogan’s second year in power may turn out to be tougher than his first

The EU’s report on Turkey looks like a half-full glass, but it is actually emptier than before

Turkish soldiers stand outside the mausoleum of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the ‘founder of modern Turkey,’ during a memorial ceremony marking 65 years since since his death, in Ankara, yesterday.

By Burak Bekdil - Kathimerini English Edition

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s first prime minister with a Muslim cleric degree, was able to avoid serious scratches and bruises in his first year in power. But he may be less lucky in his next.

Production and exports are booming, inflation and interest rates are at their lowest in nearly three decades, the lira is stable and financial markets are enjoying a spring mood — all the fruits of an economic program launched by Mr Erdogan’s predecessors and the IMF.

Mr Erdogan sighed with relief too when the risk of Turkish casualties in Iraq disappeared last week as Ankara and Washington agreed to abort a plan to send Turkish peacekeepers to the increasingly dangerous terrain.

But the European Commission’s annual progress report on Turkey, the first in a series of three important dates leading up to a most critical decision on Turkish membership in December 2004 (the others are December 2003 and May 2004, which bring Turkish-Cypriot elections and Cypriot entry into the EU, respectively), typically looks like a half-full glass; but it is, in essence, emptier than before. And that is bad news for Mr Erdogan.

Over many pages, the report praises Mr Erdogan’s flurry of political (and economic) reforms which, if fully implemented, could help Turkey win a start to accession negotiations. This is merely the theoretical side of the picture. Its practical side is quite different.

In 1999, EU leaders decided that a settlement in Cyprus should not be a precondition for Turkish accession talks. This year, they decided that failure to settle the Cyprus issue could pose a “serious obstacle” to Turkey’s bid to open talks. The nuance between a precondition and an obstacle is perhaps hidden in the not-so-veiled words of EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenter Verheugen: “This is simply noting a fact.”

Mr Verheugen, not a popular figure in Turkey, was stating nothing more than an open secret — a move which Mr Erdogan and his foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, tried but failed to prevent in unsuccessful telephone diplomacy the day before the report’s release. Later on, Mr Gul’s helpless ministry described the report as “constructive… balanced, encouraging,” all nice words which no one in the ministry really believed.

The issue of Turkish membership in the EU is a complex game with too many players with different goals and, therefore, too many parameters. The key content of the annual progress report, the reference to Cyprus, has (openly) pleased anti-EU Turks and (secretly) anti-Turkish Europeans.

It was not a coincidence that the Turkish media played up the negative aspects of the report although, technically speaking, it was the most positive assessment Brussels has made yet. Following the report’s release, more Turks than before believe the EU will come up with an endless list of requirements to make Turkish membership impossible — today Cyprus and Aegean disputes, tomorrow Armenian genocide claims and an autonomous Kurdistan, and the next day God knows what.

This is good news for the EU skeptics in various ranks of the state establishment in Ankara. The report will inevitably strengthen the position of the hardliners who categorically oppose a settlement in Cyprus — and, if necessary, EU membership in the future. In the wake of the report, EU enthusiasts in the Turkish capital will have to have a quieter voice. At each “strategy meeting” in the corridors of very important buildings in Ankara, the hardliners will now loudly remind others of a nightmare scenario: Imagine, gentlemen, we give up Cyprus but never win a date for membership talks!

It’s good news for the EU’s heavyweight Turkey skeptics too. Ostensibly, the veiled Turkey skeptics are pushing for the reunification of Cyprus. But privately, they care less about a settlement and more about keeping 70 million Turks outside the EU zone. They say more pressure on Turkey will do the trick and Ankara will eventually have to bow to a solution before it wins a date for accession talks. Privately, they know that more pressure will only diminish the chances for a settlement. Those who really want a settlement are being trapped.

After the report, Mr Erdogan will have even less leverage on the military for a settlement in Cyprus. He would not risk ending his political career by pushing too hard for a solution which will probably not open the door for membership in the EU. And, besides, he cannot.

Mr Erdogan’s only hope is Turkish-Cypriot elections. The votes of 200,000 or so Turkish Cypriots have probably never been more strategically significant. A recent public opinion poll says Mr Erdogan will probably lose that hope too.

The poll by the Turkish research house Verso-Sam revealed that the ruling coalition of the National Unity Party and the Democratic Party, which has strongly aligned itself with Turkish-Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash in opposing a United Nations blueprint for a settlement, is likely to win elections with a collective 42.9 percent of the vote, while the leftist block, which has been supportive of the Annan plan, will win only 32.4 percent of the vote.

Judging from their projections in previous Turkish elections, Verso-Sam is not the most accurate pollster. But the much smaller size of the sample could prove the company more successful this time.

The interlinked issues of Cyprus and EU membership are like time bombs in the hands of Mr Erdogan. After all his reform efforts, he may be singled out as the collaborator in the EU’s evil plans against Turkey, if things go wrong. After his first year in office three in every four Turks still believe he might be using EU-oriented policies as a cover for protection against the military and that he might come up with a radical Islamist agenda when he has strengthened his position. But Mr Erdogan is a smart man, and a survivor. His European friends should not be surprised if he takes a U-turn from his pro-EU policies when he thinks that playing the patriot against evil Europeans will make him better off at home.