Turkey’s EU dream vanishing?

Experts say Ankara’s momentum on reforms is lagging, but trust can be regained

Turkish leaders, army commanders and thousands of people attend a funeral ceremony in Ankara yesterday in honor of retired Col. Mustafa Sekip Birgol, 105, the last surviving Turkish soldier who fought in Turkey’s 1919-22 War of Independence under the leadership of the man who later became modern Turkey’s founding father, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk.

By Ibon Villelabeitia - Reuters

ANKARA – Turkey risks seeing its dream of European Union membership vanish unless it urgently pushes reforms, but to rebuild trust between the two sides EU members must send a clear message that Ankara’s bid is not doomed.

An EU enlargement progress report last week said Turkey had a long way to go, while Croatia, which began accession talks at the same time as Ankara, was at the doors of entering the bloc.

The report, which raps Turkey for slow progress, on issues ranging from human rights to intellectual property protection to curbing the power of the military, has raised fresh doubts over whether this large and predominantly Muslim country of 70 million will ever become a full EU member.

“The million dollar question is whether Turkey will ever join the European Union,” said Amanda Akcakoca, an analyst at the European Policy Center in Brussels.

“Trust is starting to ebb away between the EU and Turkey. Turkey has a lot of homework to do but it is important for the EU to send a symbolic message to Turkey,” Akcakoca said.

Turkey began accession negotiations in 2005, but the pace of reforms has since slowed and talks are moving at a snail’s pace.

Analysts say political distractions at home and little appetite for enlargement among EU member states after the bloc’s costly expansion into central and eastern Europe have pushed the EU agenda to the back burner of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

“We have reached a stalemate and it is difficult to see how Turkey and the EU will get out of it and gain momentum,” said Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst for Eurasia Group. “The longer it takes, the tougher it will be for Turkey to enter the EU. There is a danger that slow progress will fuel a growing estrangement which will be difficult to repair.”

Turkey has always had a rocky relationship with the EU, clashing frequently over free speech, minority rights and the divided island of Cyprus.

Turkey had won praise for its efforts to stamp out police mistreatment in the past, but a rise in complaints of torture mentioned in the report has prompted fears that progress on key reforms may be stalling. “There is a danger that in this stalemate we might see some progress slipping back,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the Ankara office of the German Marshall Fund think tank. “It could start at a low level and the government could say: ‘Okay, mistreatment of prisoners and torture is getting bad, but we have more pressing issues now,’” he said.

The EU wants Turkey to make progress on judicial reform, minority rights and to open its ports to traffic from Cyprus.

The ruling AKP, which secured Turkey’s decades-long quest to officially launch EU membership negotiations, has repeatedly pledged to revive its EU drive. But few observers have any faith Turkey’s bid will regain momentum in the near future, with municipal elections in March and a slowing economy dominating the government’s agenda.

“We risk being in 2009 with nothing on the menu,” a European Commission source, who declined to be named, said. This standstill would come from a combination of lack of reforms in Turkey and the opposition of some EU states to Turkey’s full membership. France, Cyprus and Germany are all blocking one or several areas – so-called chapters – of talks. Analysts have said it will be decades, rather than years, before Turkey joins the EU.

Turkish officials complain of double standards, and have cited the example of Croatia, a Roman Catholic country of 4.4 million which has leapfrogged Turkey on the EU path.

At stake are broader security and energy repercussions for both Europe and Turkey, analysts say.

DIYARBAKIR (Reuters) – Six youths could be jailed in Turkey for up to 23 years on terrorism charges for taking part in violent Kurdish separatist protests last month, according to court documents released yesterday.

The teenagers, aged between 13 and 14, have been charged with “committing a crime in the name of a terrorist organization” as well as spreading propaganda and destroying public property. The case comes at a time when the European Union has criticized Ankara for inadequate protection of children’s rights.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the southeast last month was met with violent protests in which one person died as protesters clashed over a number of days with police in several cities, including Diyarbakir, the region’s largest. Tensions have risen in response to increased Turkish military attacks on the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) guerrillas, both inside Turkey and on its bases in northern Iraq.

The teenagers are being tried in a children’s court but face the same possible sentence as adult offenders. According to the state-run news agency Anatolia, court documents show the Diyarbakir state prosecutor has called for the defendants to be jailed for up to 23 years if convicted. The ruling Justice and Development Party has tried to increase its presence and boost investment in the predominantly Kurdish southeast ahead of local elections due next March. Turkey’s Kurdish minority have long complained of discrimination and a lack of jobs.