The Socialists’ dilemma

Serbian party torn between past and future in forming ruling coalition

Serb President Boris Tadic (right) listens to Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic (left) during the meeting of the Southeast European Cooperation Process (SEECP) in Bulgaria on Wednesday.

By Ellie Tzortzi - Reuters

BELGRADE – Courted by pro-Western and nationalist rivals for a coalition government, Serbia’s Socialists are torn between seeking new respectability in Europe and the legacy of their founder, autocrat Slobodan Milosevic.

The liberal alliance around the Democratic Party says the Socialists have changed and are now “pretty decent fellows,” a clear offer of rehabilitation to their former enemies.

The opposing bloc of the nationalist Radicals and populist DSS counter they have “the same ideology” as the Socialists and make natural allies. These three parties started talks last week.

“The Socialist Party finds itself in a very complicated political moment,” said its leader Ivica Dacic this week, as the party had to choose between “tradition and a new, uncertain path.”

“On state and national issues, we are closer to the bloc we are now negotiating with,” Dacic said. “Ideologically, in terms of entering into Socialist International and forming a leftist government, we are closer to the Democrats.”

The Democrat-led alliance that came first in the May 11 elections was part of the opposition that ousted Milosevic in 2000 and has long been a bitter critic of his legacy. But with the Socialists their only hope for a parliamentary majority, the Democrats’ new motto is “national reconciliation.”

Dacic in turn has shown he wants to turn the Socialists into a center-left party, despite grumbling from the rank and file.

“Socialist voters are older, less educated, their strongest tie to the party is Milosevic,” said analyst Milan Nikolic. “They are dying out. For the party to succeed in the future, it has to change its electorate. Joining the Democrats would give it a chance to reform, become a social-democratic party.” Pollster Marko Blagojevic said that if the Socialists chose to ally with the Radicals, the second-biggest party after the election, they would lose out in the long run.

“The Radicals would absorb Socialist voters,” he said. “The two parties have similar goals and voters tend to be attracted more by a bigger and stronger party, such as the Radicals.”

Dacic has not shown his hand, with analysts saying he will maneuver to get maximum power, and coveted posts for his officials, from whichever coalition partner he ends up with.

While he is close to an alliance with the nationalists on local level, he won’t close the door on the Democrats. “We want Serbia to be a European Union member,” he has said, and insisted on ratifying the Stabilization and Association Agreement with the bloc, which the nationalists want to annul over the EU’s backing of Kosovo’s independence.

Former US Ambassador to Serbia William Montgomery said the Socialists are “unsure of where they’re going or what they stand for.” The party had flirted with moderation, he said, but also been afraid to really break with its past.

“Forming a coalition with the Democratic Party would go a long way to help that transition to legitimacy, but it would severely risk alienating their base,” he wrote in a commentary.

BELGRADE (Reuters) – Serbia’s nationalist bloc is close to agreeing on a government with the Socialists of late autocrat Slobodan Milosevic and will sign a coalition agreement soon, officials said yesterday.

Serbia has been balanced on a political see-saw between hardliners led by the Radical Party and pro-Western liberals led by the Democratic Party since the May 11 election. The vote gave neither a clear majority and made the Socialists kingmakers.

The next government will decide if Serbia will pursue EU membership or shelve its bid until the EU stops backing the independence of Kosovo.

Senior Radical official Natasa Jovanovic said her party and the DSS party of outgoing nationalist Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica were very close to a formal deal with the Socialists that would give them a majority in parliament. “We agreed on Vojislav Kostunica as prime minister-designate,” she said after a meeting with President Boris Tadic.

Jovanovic added her coalition would officially ask for a mandate once an agreement had been signed, which would be “soon.”

Tadic has said it would be far better for Serbia if the liberal bloc led by his own Democratic Party entered into a coalition with the Socialists. The Democrats want to push ahead for EU ties regardless of Kosovo, woo investment and boost the economy.