Turk industrial output forecast to rise heftily

ANKARA (Reuters) – Turkish industrial output is expected to rise 8.1 percent year-on-year in November, less than the rise in October due to a fall in capacity utilization, a Reuters poll of 15 banks and brokerage houses showed yesterday. The industrial production figures, due to be announced tomorrow, are a key indicator for growth in crisis-hit Turkey after it suffered a more than 9 percent economic contraction in 2001. Industrial output fell 14.4 percent in the year to November 2001. Estimates in the poll varied between 4 percent and 12 percent after the index rose 11.8 percent in October. «The fall in capacity utilization is expected to reflect on production in November,» said Banu Kivci Tokali of Dis Yatirim. Capacity utilization, another indicator of growth, is expected to have fallen to 77.1 percent in November from 80.4 percent in October. «As of November, there is no negative signal in terms of output but Iraqi tensions may start taking their toll starting from December,» Tokali said. The Turkish government recently revised upward its end-2002 IMF-backed gross national product estimate to 6.5 percent from 4 percent. Some analysts say growth may reach 7 percent.

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