The war in Ukraine may have slashed Greek growth estimates from 4.5-5.5% to 3-3.5% for this year, with the significant increase in the cost of Greece’s borrowing raising concerns rating agencies will refrain from upgrading the country, but analysts are not at all worried about the Greek outlook.
They tell Kathimerini that the geopolitical shock may slow down but will not derail growth, which remains among the eurozone’s highest, while Greece’s access to markets and the attainment of investment grade are not at risk.
The conflict and the normalization of the European Central Bank policy have so far rendered a second market foray by Athens for 2022 prohibitive, as the yield of the benchmark 10-year bond has soared to 2.9% – i.e. a three-year high – while the spread with the German bund remains steadily above 200 basis points.
However, foreign economists agree Greece’s access to bond markets shouldn’t face any problems and the absence of the Public Debt Management Agency from issuing won’t affect the confidence investors now have in Greece.
The high cash reserves, ranging around 35-40 billion euros, also remain a strong asset for Athens.