Markit: 90 percent chance of Greek default

Greek five-year credit default swaps have been recently trading at more than 2,600 basis points, implying a default probability of almost 90 percent, according to data from Markit.

That compares with 8.8 percent in Spain, 11.5 percent in Italy and 13.5 percent in Portugal, as contagion chances appear limited.

In 2012, by contrast, the threat of a Greek exit from the eurozone pushed default probabilities in indebted peripheral countries to between 40 and 60 percent.

Meanwhile trading in Greek bonds has dried up.

Data from the Greek central bank show zero volumes on the HDAT electronic platform between March 27 and April 15.

Only 63 million euros was traded last month.

Total volumes for 2014 were 10.4 billion euros.

This suggests the little remaining trading in Greek bonds is being conducted over the counter, probably between “vulture funds” specialized in investing in distressed markets.

Bookmaker William Hill closed bets on a 2015 Grexit a week ago.


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