Around half of investors expect Greece to leave the eurozone within the next 12 months, a survey by German research group Sentix showed on Tuesday.
Sentix’s eurozone breakup index for Greece shot up to 48.3 percent in April from 35.5 percent in March, suggesting one in two investors is skeptical about pledges to keep Athens in the single currency bloc.
“European politicians’ promises to pursue the scenario of Greece keeping the euro are not taken at face value by about half of all investors,” Sentix said in a statement.
Greece is weeks away from running out of cash, but talks with its European Union and International Monetary Fund lenders on more aid have been deadlocked over reform measures including pension cuts and labor market liberalization that Greece must implement.
“In 2012 (European Central Bank President) Mario Draghi calmed down investors with his ultimate commitment to the euro. But is his pledge still valid for Greece today?” Sentix said.
The breakup index for the eurozone as a whole climbed to 49.0 percent in April from 36.8 percent in March, driven by the increase in expectations that Athens would quit the bloc.
That put it at about the same level as during the peak of the euro zone debt crisis in 2012.
However, Sentix’s index measuring the risk of contagion fell to a record low of 26.1 percent, meaning that investors do not generally expect the Greek debt crisis to spread to other parts of the euro zone.
The breakup survey covered 1,023 investors conducted April 23-25. It measures the percentage of investors that expect the euro zone to break up.