Testing the waters in the bonds market


If Greece does return to the bond markets soon, the first move is expected to be the replacement of the 4-billion-euro bond issued in 2014 and expiring in 2019.

This is likely because the state’s obligations will be high in 2019, resulting in concerns over whether it will be able to cover them, given the expiry of the bailout program in August 2018. The government is therefore considering replacing the two years left with a five-year paper. The 2014 bond was issued with an interest of 4.95 percent and its coupon at the moment stands at 4.75 percent.

If the state hit the markets today with a five-year paper, it could secure interest of between 4.6 and 5.1 percent, so the replacement would be loss-free.

It is noted that the yield of the 10-year bond has dropped from 5.90 percent last Thursday to 5.55 percent, while the bond that expired in 2023 on Tuesday had a yield of 5.12 percent.

Of course before implementing any such decision the government will have to consult its creditors and try to secure their support.