Supermarkets are expected to post 5.3% growth in turnover this year, as any losses in the second half from the expected contraction of the economy will have been offset by the jump in demand as soon as the first case of the coronavirus was recorded in Greece.
Notably, in case of a second wave of Covid-19 this fall, as epidemiologists expect, the rise in supermarket turnover this year is seen expanding to 8.1% compared to 2019, according to IRI’s Analytics Center of Excellence.
These two scenarios on the course of organized retail sales were presented on Wednesday during an online seminar titled “Covid-19: The Day After in the Market,” with the center’s head, Constantinos Kotopoulos, saying that consumers’ likely response to a second wave of cases will be much milder than the panic buying seen in early March.
From the start of the year until May 24, supermarket turnover grew 14.7% year-on-year, with the increase in that period’s last three months (February 24 – May 24) coming to 21.5% on an annual basis. The fact that the sales growth in both scenarios is expected to be below 10% for the whole year is to a great extent attributed to the recession expected in the Greek economy, which is already reflected in consumer confidence.
According to the latest IRI survey after the lifting of the lockdown (on May 20-22), 68% of consumers are worried about their household income, 74% are concerned about their jobs, and 42% said they had already experienced negative changes at work. In the first phase of this survey, conducted on March 13-18, just 50% of respondents were worried about their family income, while the 70% who were fretting about health matters were planning to stock up on commodities.
With or without a second wave of Covid-19, the domestic cleaning products category is set to show the biggest rise in sales this year. According to IRI projections, this category will show an increase of 8.9% without a second wave of cases and a 11.6% jump with a second wave this fall.