Turkish gross national product growth seen at 5.4 percent in 2006
ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Turkish gross national product (GNP) is expected to have risen 5.4 percent year-on-year in 2006, outstripping a government target of 5 percent, a Reuters poll showed yesterday. The poll of 15 economists gave a median forecast of 5.4 percent for both GNP and gross domestic product (GDP) full-year growth, compared to growth a year earlier of 7.6 percent. It also forecast fourth-quarter growth of 4.15 percent for GDP and 4.20 for GNP. «If you look at the industrial production figures for the fourth quarter last year, there will be a pick-up compared with the third quarter, in line with the central bank’s warnings,» said Is Investment economist Burcu Unuvar. Industrial production grew 5.8 percent in the fourth quarter compared to a year earlier. «This resulted from exports rather than domestic demand. The impact of the rise in exports will also be felt in 2007,» Unuvar said. Last year, a slide in the lira in May and June prompted the central bank to hike benchmark borrowing rates 425 basis points, putting the brakes on growth in the second half, although the slowdown was less pronounced than expected. Growth for this year has also been targeted at 5 percent. The central bank said yesterday in the minutes of its last Monetary Policy Committee meeting that it expected growth figures to fall in the second quarter due to base factors from the previous year. The growth data are scheduled for release on April 2.
