Turkish growth on target
ANKARA (Reuters) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday Turkey’s 3-percent growth target for this year was completely feasible after last year’s financial crisis that caused the worst recession since 1945. «Clearly, there are risks to growth but 3 percent is completely feasible and even if growth falls below this, the debt dynamics would not really be effected,» IMF Turkey desk head Juha Kahkonen told a conference call. Kahkonen said that the experience of other emerging market economies which had gone through crisis, such as Thailand, as well as Turkey’s own experience after the 1994 crisis, suggested 3-percent growth this year was not implausible. Turkey’s economy contracted by 9.4 percent last year after the February 2001 crisis that forced Turkey to float the lira, which then lost some 50 percent of its value, and led to the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs. Turkey’s domestic debt was swollen by massive debt issuance to help rehabilitate the banking sector and managing the debt was made harder by a sharp rise in interest rates. Domestic debt stands at close to the equivalent of $90 billion. Kahkonen said a 35-percent target for consumer price inflation this year was also feasible. He said Turkey’s economic program had started off better than expected and that some room for maneuver was built in to cushion against possible external shocks. Analysts are concerned a possible US attack on Iraq, which borders Turkey, could hit Turkey’s economy. «The program has started better than expected. The central bank has higher reserves than originally expected. Interest rates are lower than expected, and the fiscal side is better, so there’s already some cushion that could help absorb moderate shocks,» Kahkonen said. Asked whether the IMF would help Turkey with further loans if it suffers an external shock, Kahkonen said it was too soon to talk about that. – On Panamax in Far East, Coeclerici has fixed M/V «Altair» 74,652 dwt, built 2001, delivery Singapore end April for 2-3 legs at USD 8,000 daily.
