ECONOMY

EFG closest in FX poll

BANGALORE (Reuters) – EFG Eurobank made the most accurate forecasts for one-month dollar rates in the December 2007 Reuters monthly foreign exchange poll. The forecasts diverged on average by 1.13 percent from the actual close on December 31, the last trading day of the month. EFG Eurobank forecast sterling to end the month at $2.035, the euro at $1.455 and the dollar at 112.0 yen in the survey taken December 3-5. That compared with actual rates of sterling at $1.9847, the euro at $1.4589 and the dollar at 111.33 yen. BNP Paribas in London was the runner-up with a 1.18 percent divergence, while Calyon in London claimed third place with a 1.28 percent divergence. Amongst the top 20 forecasters for sterling/dollar, RZB, Lehman Brothers and CMC Markets were the closest with a 1.2748 percent divergence. For EUR/DLR, Alpha Bank and BCP were the closest with a 0.0617 percent divergence, and for DLR/YEN, Calyon and RBS were the closest with a 0.2964 percent divergence. Divergences for the predictions ranged as high as 4.60 percent. The consensus forecast, based on the median, was off by 2.14 percent, up from the 1.66 percent divergence in the previous month’s survey. Average annualized monthly volatility as calculated by Reuters was 10.30 percent in December, down from 11.13 percent in the previous month. Twenty-two out of the 59 strategists who gave one-month forecasts for the euro, sterling and yen outperformed the consensus prediction for the month. The monthly poll asks analysts and currency strategists for one-, three-, six-, and 12-month forecasts for dollar exchange rates against sterling, the euro and yen. Full month rankings can be accessed by double-clicking on Reuters’s «FOREXPOLL23.»