Economy has last word
Everyone would agree that the Simitis government’s biggest sin is its dismal failure to pursue the reform of the public sector with any sense of urgency. The miserable record of the state machine, the desperately low productivity of public departments, the lack of elementary rules of competition and productivity, even in areas directly related to production, are, in public opinion, some of the blackest marks against this government. However, tricks played by fortune, circumstances and, ultimately, history, are likely to offer one last chance to Mr Simitis. Although it is humanly impossible for the citizen to change his/her opinion of the efficiency of public administration, the course of events may offer the present government the opportunity to at least soften the negative impact of the performance of public services on electoral results. Mr Simitis has already won two crucial bets: He has succeeded in making the Greek citizen believe that the army, one of the most important sectors of the State, works «rather well,» and that in any case the citizen has confidence in it (together with the Church). The recent successes against terrorism now add the police to one of the state sectors that appear to be «doing their job well;» a sense that there is «law and order» is at higher levels than it has been for a very long time. But, of course, there remain a host of other areas in which it is doubtful that similar successes can be recorded; nevertheless, public opinion seems to be rather positively absorbing the results of the new system for entry into tertiary education, responds with a certain degree of excitement when a new big project is at last delivered for public use and awards a plus for the inauguration of a new hospital, even though the public health system still leaves a lot to be desired in terms of confidence among the citizenry. If such factors exercise their positive influence, there practically remains only one issue of foreign policy which can raise (rather than lower) the ruling party’s credit. The successful inclusion of Cyprus in the next round of European Union enlargement – coincidentally, during the Greek six-monthly presidency – without conditions regarding the solution of the island’s political problem, will be received with relief, if not as the best, then surely as a realistic and proper solution to a national problem that has exercised a more destabilizing influence on the country’s political life than any other in the post-war period. Such a prospect is helped by Turkey’s clear need to work toward EU membership, which can lead the age-old adversaries to realistic and controlled compromises. In any case, even an easing of the tension will be a plus-mark for the government’s policy of a thaw with Turkey, which can be further promoted during Greece’s EU presidency. But the factor that has the last word in all modern societies, which offered Mr Simitis a strong support base, is the state of the economy, which displays the greatest difficulties. No doubt, the economic growth rate will remain high into 2003, projected higher than this year. However, on the economic front, the difficulty for the government will be exactly the opposite from the other factors mentioned above; even though things are better than ever, the citizen feels that his/her economic situation has not improved. This is not surprising. The compulsory adjustment of the Greek economy to the new realities of global competition is taking place in a difficult period, full of uncertainties, with low growth rates and sharp conflicts. Even though the Public Power Corporation managed to obtain government approval for an electricity rate rise in the midst of general indifference, the situation in the public sector of the economy has not improved to the extent warranted by circumstances. Worse still, a very large segment of the private sector finds itself hostage to high production costs, large value losses in capital market assets and small market shares. The government has less than a year to turn the economic climate around. If the global situation does not change and continues to weigh heavily on people’s psychology, the unexpected progress in other sectors will have been in vain.
