Aftershocks in Athens from Qatargate
EU graft scandal is reshuffling the pack in the domestic political scene ahead of elections
Qatargate and the involvement of socialist MEP Eva Kaili is bringing sweeping changes to the geometry of the ongoing electoral period, though whether these will be temporary or of a permanent nature remains to be seen. What’s more, against the backdrop of the wiretapping affair, party staffs are eagerly awaiting the results of public opinion polls in order to map out their next moves.
Fears are already being expressed that the corruption scandal in Brussels combined with the pressure on vulnerable social groups due to the energy crisis and inflation could lead to a resurgence of the so-called “anti-systemic vote.” It is not lost on party officials that after the traumatic 2012-2015 period, the country appeared to have returned to political normality only to fall back into crisis with the electoral rise of the extreme right due to frustration with political parties and the European Union itself.
In any case, the Kaili case is already changing the game in the runup to elections, causing additional political polarization. Tellingly, the choice by PASOK leader Nikos Androulakis to try to link his MP Kaili to the government has led to an open verbal war between the two parties. Androulaks also stressed that New Democracy must be swept from power, opening up possibilities of alliances.
Government officials believe that Qatargate poses dangers for ND, but also offers significant opportunities.
The danger is that, if one-party rule is the desired outcome, the administration will come across as isolated in the runup to the upcoming double election. On the other hand, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ perception of political “loneliness” could work to his advantage.
In particular, the prospect of a SYRIZA-PASOK alliance may rally the base of New Democracy and also lead to an influx of new voters, especially in the first ballot of the simple proportional representation, where there is a fear of the so-called wasted vote. This is considered crucial, because the government needs a good tally in the first election in order to exceed the 37.5%-38% required in the second round in order to beat the threshold for single-party rule.
At the same time, the “reconnection” of PASOK with corruption and scandals is expected to push voters, who had turned to the socialists after the emergence of Androulakis as leader, to the electoral pool for ND.
