Ruling party’s electoral base is not rallying behind it as in 2000

The poll confirmed ND’s steady lead in voters’ intentions in all polls taken just before the current one – contradicting claims that the gap between ND and PASOK had remained high because there had been no time for voters to become familiar with the government’s recently announced package of measures, the Convergence Charter. PASOK has reduced the difference by only 0.5 percent since June, considered the lowest point for the government in the past four years due to allegations against certain government officials. It also appears certain that the Communist Party of Greece (KKE) will gain parliamentary seats in the next elections, as well as the Left Coalition, which the poll shows as gaining the 3 percent of the vote required. ND’s steady lead is due to two main factors. One is the extremely high degree of support from the party’s electoral base (92.9 percent), while PASOK’s remains considerably low at 71.4 percent despite the fact that the electoral campaign period has virtually begun. The second factor is the shift to ND of 10 percent of those who voted for PASOK in 2000. Only 0.7 percent intend to move in the other direction. Before the 2000 elections the percentage of undecided voters was far higher than it is now, indicating that while PASOK’s main losses then were in the direction of the undecided, they are now heading for ND’s camp.