Turkish president’s Syria turnaround
Signs of an about-face in Turkey’s strategy on Syria have been on the rise for days. The chorus of ruling party officials demanding a reconciliation with Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has been growing louder and louder. The starting signal for the campaign was given by no less than Mevlut Cavusoglu, the Turkish foreign minister, who said a compromise must be found between the opposition and the regime in Syria. “For us, the issue is not about defeating Assad,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told reporters on his way back from his summit diplomacy in Ukraine, stating for the first time since the outbreak of the war that toppling the Syrian leader was no longer Ankara’s objective.
Until recently, it seemed only a matter of time before the Turkish Army would advance into the north of the country again and seize more territory there. In May, Erdogan had announced a new offensive. Russia and Iran, Erdogan’s most important allies on the Syrian issue, have made it clear they oppose a new war. That the US and more recently Germany’s foreign minister also warned against a Turkish military advance plays a minor role in Erdogan’s calculations. For him, Putin’s order is decisive. Behind the scenes, Moscow has been pushing for a review of Turkey’s policy and the restoration of relations between Ankara and Damascus for a while. A normalization of these relations would be a spectacular step towards rehabilitation for the internationally isolated Syrian regime. The Russians would benefit enormously from the upgrading of their most important ally in the Arab world.
Still, the rifts run deep. Damascus insists on the withdrawal of the Turkish occupation forces in the north of the country. Ankara demands the dismantling of the autonomous authorities, in which the Kurds play a central role. Above all, Turkey is insisting on the return of large numbers of Syrian refugees who have found a second home in Anatolia. Close to 4 million Syrian refugees have long been the subject of partisan bickering. Erdogan’s Syria policy is largely driven by domestic political calculations. Hardly any other issue is better suited to mobilize the masses than a war against the Kurds on the other side of the border. Pollsters have found that an invasion of Syria would give Erdogan’s party a 3 to 4 percent increase at the polls.
Meanwhile, low-level fighting continues in the Turkish-Syrian border region. Peace is not in sight – and not very likely in the foreseeable future. The causes of the conflict run too deep to be resolved by a political transaction between Putin and Erdogan.
Dr Ronald Meinardus is the head of the Mediterranean Program at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP).
