An irreversible slump
I believe that even if Erdogan can again become president he has no choice other than to maintain Turkey in the Western Alliance no matter the cost. From the economic point of view, Turkey cannot leave the Customs Union, NATO and the European Council.
Such a violent rupture could only be imagined if Erdogan is facing an election loss and instead of accepting the result could dare to put Turkey in the other camp. Do not forget that this dramatic choice is inseparable from a radical change in the system; from semi-democracy or authoritarianism to an open dictatorship.
If Erdogan wins the presidential elections the crisis is not reversible. I do not want to speculate on this issue. I can just say that the nightmare will become more frightening. If the candidate of the opposition becomes president this will not be easy for the new government to reverse the crisis because the problems that have accumulated in the last few years, like very high inflation, negative central bank reserves etc, very high current account deficits, are so burning that it is difficult to fix them rapidly and at relatively modest costs.
Nevertheless, the main asset of the new government will be the comeback of confidence.
Seyfettin Gursel, Bahcesehir University, expert on the Turkish economy.
* This opinion piece is part of an in-depth look by 10 analysts, journalists and experts into Turkey ahead of the June 2023 elections: Where will Turkey be a year from now?
