Turkey obsessed with Greece
The Turkish economy is in a very poor state and Erdogan will, reasonably, lose the election. You cannot know how an authoritarian leader will react, but we do know that the more the economy worsens, the more he’ll use other issues to draw votes. It is possible, for example, that he’ll cause crises in foreign policy.
This is much more likely in the case of Greece than, say, in the case of Syria, as it is an issue that strikes a powerful chord with Kemalist voters. Turkish citizens “bite” when it comes to matters of security and Erdogan wants people talking about anything but the economy. A crisis with Greece would be big enough to counteract the economic crisis.
I am not saying that it will happen, but I believe that if Erdogan chooses to play this game, the Greece front is likely. And I also believe that Erdogan is even prepared to sacrifice relations with the West just to win this election. He’s willing to risk everything. The question is whether it will work. This will depend on the opposition’s ability to react. So far, it has been quite passive on several issues.
Erdogan may challenge the process if he loses the election, but I think this will only happen if the margin is small. This election will be a test of whether Turkey remains on the democratic path. The question is who the opposition puts forward.
If the opposition wins, things will only be marginally better in terms of Greece. Turkey’s foreign policy towards Greece is something Turkish society agrees with. We even see Kemalists adopting an extreme stance towards Greece. The different is that the Kemalists will not manipulate public opinion to such a great extent on this issue. Structurally, though, we should not expect any significant change. The disputes with Greece are an obsession in Turkey.
Gokhan Bacik, Palacky University, Czech Republic, expert on Islam and Turkey.
* This opinion piece is part of an in-depth look by 10 analysts, journalists and experts into Turkey ahead of the June 2023 elections: Where will Turkey be a year from now?
