Don’t expect a different government to change things
The closer the elections get, the more bets will go wild in Turkey and abroad. As of today there is a vast consensus among the pollsters and Turkey watchers that the present regime will lose the elections and the ruling coalition and Erdogan will be defeated.
Indeed, given the present state of affairs in terms of the economy, social cohesion and the political landscape, the regime has almost no chance of winning again. Putting aside the probability of widespread fraud and of a renewed coalition between AKP and IYIP, the heteroclite opposition would win the parliamentary elections as well as the presidency in the second round.
In my opinion the evils Turkey is going through on a daily basis won’t cease, once a new administration is enacted. This is not just a matter of time as we witness power shifts in different countries. The heteroclite opposition has no political program to redress the chaotic situation other than to defeat Erdogan! It has no economic program, no political will to solve the Kurdish quagmire, no plan to reverse the ongoing foreign adventures, including threats against Cyprus and Greece.
On this very issue, with the exception of the HDP, the opposition is actually as much of a warmonger as the regime.
All in all, one should not expect Turkey to recover and return to normalcy, even with a win by the opposition.
Cengiz Aktar, political scientist and columnist, expert in Turkish-European relations.
* This opinion piece is part of an in-depth look by 10 analysts, journalists and experts into Turkey ahead of the June 2023 elections: Where will Turkey be a year from now?
