US Election 2022: Winners, losers and what it means for the next two years
Post-election analyses almost always describe what just passed as “historic” elections. The 2022 midterms will instead be remembered as “history defying” elections. A “red wave” was predicted – and rightly so. Since the 1930’s, the party of a president with an approval rating below 50 percent suffered loses. President Joe Biden’s approval rating is in the low 40s, inflation is high and in the 22 midterm elections from 1934 -2018, the President’s party has averaged a loss of 28 House seats and four Senate seats.
So much focus has been placed on the failure of a predicted “red wave” to materialize that the fact that this election was a clear Democratic victory has been missed. Not only was history defied when it came to results in Congress, Democrats scored major victories in state legislatures and governorships across the country. Young voters were as energized in 2022 as they were in 2020, and they react most strongly to threats to democracy. This could have major implications for 2024.
The Greek-American community and Hellenic interests were big winners in the 2022 mid-terms. Greek-American members of Congress who were on the ballot – Gus Bilirakis, John Sarbanes, Dina Titus, Chris Pappas, Nicole Malliotakis – were all re-elected. The most significant philhellene standing for re-election in the US Senate – Chris Van Hollen – cruised to an easy victory. And the next great philhellene in American politics – Robert Menendez Jr – won his race decisively and will be taking up his seat in the House of Representatives in January.
Speaking of Menendez, while the composition of the Senate may not yet be official, it looks likely that the Democrats will retain control of the United States Senate and Senator Menendez will remain Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. Even as Ranking Member he could have yielded significant power – including a veto over foreign military sales – but as Chairman his ability to set the agenda and influence the administration is greater.
These victories were enhanced by losses suffered by Erdogan – who seemed to have been cheering for a red wave ever since he declared that his discussions with “Republicans” over F16 sales were positive. The high-profile defeat of Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania’s Senate race was particularly important, because his ties to the Erdogan regime and his refusal to criticize Erdogan or clarify his position on key foreign policy issues hurt his campaign.
And that defeat was only the beginning of a bad night for Erdogan. The leaders of the legislative efforts to restrict F16 sales to Turkey were all reelected Tuesday evening. One of the co-chairs of the Turkish caucus suffered an upset defeat – and he was the only Republican in Ohio to lose his seat.
The champions of the US-Greece and US-Cyprus bilateral relationships are heading into the next Congress with wind in their sails. With retirements, defeats, and anticipated retirements, Greek-American members of Congress will advance. Gus Bilirakis and John Sarbanes are already in the top 100 members of the House of Representatives in terms of seniority, and they will both move up several slots. Their ability – as well as the ability of Titus, Pappas and Malliotakis – to secure key committee slots, educate new members, and influence their party’s leadership is significant.
A few things to watch for over the next two years:
Intrigue over who may be Speaker of the House: the unexpectedly poor performance of Republican Congressional campaigns has raised doubts that Kevin McCarthy can secure enough votes to take the Speakership over from Nancy Pelosi. Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana – the current House Minority Whip – has been widely discussed as an alternative. Scalise supported the amendment restricting F16 sales to Turkey. He seems to have excellent relations with Representatives Bilirakis and Malliotakis and has key constituent relationships with Greek-Americans in Louisiana.
Expanded roles for certain members of the House: the departure of Ted Deutch and Carolyn Maloney from Congress vacate the Democratic chairs of two caucuses, the Congressional Hellenic Israel Alliance caucus and the Congressional Hellenic caucus. It appears that David Cicilline will take Deutch’s spot both in the caucus and as chair of the Middle East and North Africa subcommittee, and Congressmen Frank Pallone and Chris Pappas may both be part of an expanded Hellenic caucus leadership. All of these Representatives have been active on Hellenic issues but have a chance to take an even greater leadership role.
A potential Democratic presidential primary: Although President Biden declared an interest in running for reelection, that is more unlikely than likely. Thus, if a wide-open Democratic primary gets underway at some point in 2023, the endorsement of Chris Pappas and Dina Titus in the early primary states of New Hampshire and Nevada, or of state-wide elected officials – California Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis and newly elected Illinois Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias – will be highly sought after. Watch Pappas, Kounalakis and Giannoulias in particular, who are all young enough to capitalize on changes coming in the leadership of the Democratic party and will all have significant opportunities to advance in the next 8 years.
In the short term, this past Tuesday’s election will keep the positive trends in the US-Greece relationship going. But the long-term consequences may even more positive and more significant.
Endy Zemenides is executive director at the Hellenic American Leadership Council.
