September, don’t come
Some people may recall ?Come September,? a 1961 film starring Rock Hudson and Gina Lollobrigida. This coming September will bear no resemblance to that light summer romantic comedy — not in Greece, nor in Europe, or the rest of the world.
A great deal will be decided in the first month of autumn and we have already had a first taste with the turmoil in the markets, the uncertainty of the ruling elites and the social tensions triggered by the economic crisis around the globe.
September will be a tough month. Many analysts hold that it will see a fierce attack by the markets on the bonds of the debt-wracked nations of Europe and the common currency. The same analysts argue that the outcome of the battle will be decided by the reactions of political leaders. The outcome will determine the future of the euro and the common currency zone, which will either have to take steps toward common economic governance or risk coming apart.
But, reasonably speaking, the latter alternative is in no one?s interest, neither in Europe nor elsewhere.
Also in early September, the parliaments of our European creditors will have to approve the second bailout package for Greece. The loan is a condition for fending off a Greek default and safeguarding the euro.
European decision-makers believe that markets will not calm down as long as the Greek issue remains unresolved, and they insist that reforms must be accelerated.
However, judging by the political reactions in Germany, the parliamentary battles will be fierce and a positive outcome cannot be taken for granted. Also not certain at this moment is the size of the private sector contribution to the Greek rescue package.
September will be a tense month back home in Greece too — particularly in the banking sector, not to mention the social tensions.
Aleka Papariga, the leader of Greece?s Communist Party (KKE), has said that protests will intensify, obviously in light of the implementation of the midterm fiscal plan passed in July.
Meanwhile, taxi owners are waiting for Transport Minister Yiannis Ragousis to table the bill for the liberalization of their sector.
An escalation of the riots in Britain could fan fresh violence in Greece.
In light of all the above, and considering the volatility in the country and beyond, some analysts are predicting that September will come with political developments. It?s a risky forecast, but it cannot be ruled out.
