OPINION

The terms of negotiation

The terminology used to describe Greece’s negotiations with its creditors is becoming increasingly reminiscent of that used in reference to the Cyprus reunification talks, with terms such as “honorable compromise,” “mutually acceptable agreement,” “realistic deal” and “sustainable solution.” Whichever of the two issues is under discussion, the feeling is practically the same when comparing the forceful demand for an “honorable solution” to the more defeatist call for “realism.”

The two issues also have much in common in the belief, or rather delusion, that our sovereign rights will finally outweigh the cold interests of other parties and that at some point we will inevitably be vindicated by dint of our claim’s moral superiority. It is in the same line of reasoning that we believe involving powerful third parties in the discussion (such as Russia, for example, or China) will help bring that vindication faster. Last but not least is the certainty that everything will turn out in our favor with a simple statement of support from the United States, which we tend to believe is always benevolent toward our cause.

The similarities between the bailout and Cyprus talks end here because there are also significant differences between the two. Foremost among them is the parameter of time. A decade in the Cyprus negotiations is a week in the Greek bailout talks. Deadlines are constantly being pushed further forward and changed. Also, in the negotiations with the institutions it is not possible to adopt the kind of “interim” solution or “non-solution” that had been favored for quite some time by the Greek-Cypriot side in the belief that at least this way nothing is official.

If Greece came to the talks with nothing but numbers to show, a solution would already have been reached: the country’s expulsion from the eurozone. The fiscal policy test would have failed and the eurozone would have no more use for its guinea pig. Greece is being kept in the game partly because of the symbolic nature of what it is and because of fears that a Grexit could prove toxic. Mainly, though, it is still in the eurozone because of its strategic position both in the unstable Balkans and in the Mediterranean, a region whose chronic problems have never been solved and whose new ones are barely manageable.

Are these factors enough to achieve an agreement that is so honorable it gives back to Greece the sovereignty it lost when signing up to the first two bailout deals? Are they enough to push a writedown of the Greek debt to the top of an agreement rather than having it relegated to small footnote? There is nothing wrong with hoping – as long as it’s not delusional.

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