The deus ex machina will be hard on us
Confusion reigns, and the difference to our lives between a deal with our creditors and failure is so great it is a wonder the Greeks still appear relatively calm. Either we are convinced that in the end a deus ex machina will solve our problems or we have no idea what is going on. I am among those who do not dare to predict what will happen. Mainly, I think things will drag on, with patches, deadline extensions and theatrics until the end. Today I see only two fixed points: If Greece does not find the money to pay the International Monetary Fund 1.5 billion euros by the end of the month, things will worsen quickly; neither the Greek government nor our creditors want to take any decisive action that will leave them with the corpse in their arms.
In the months of “negotiations,” it became clear that it is impossible to base our hopes on what we hear. Every day we watch the roulette wheel spin and have no idea where the ball will land. Even if we believe that the game may be rigged, every 24 hours we go from the hope of a solution to the near certainty of failure. In the last two days alone we saw so many variables in motion that it is impossible to draw any conclusion other than to confirm once again that we should note what is done and not be swayed by words.
On the one side stand the “institutions” – the triad of the IMF, the Commission and the European Central Bank – and on the other the Greek government. At times the institutions talk with a single voice, at others they have different opinions. In practice, they are united. Jean-Claude Juncker’s recent anger and his reported declaration that Greece has “lost” the Commission, highlights one of the troika’s internal currents, where the Commission is often seen as being more “friendly” toward Greece. It is, however, the “strict” ECB which keeps Greece alive by providing just enough liquidity (albeit with the ever-present threat of even this being reduced). Yesterday, the IMF said that its experts were walking away until the Greeks came up with more serious proposals – just a few hours after a smiling Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was telling us how well talks went with Chancellor Merkel, President Hollande, Juncker and others. The Athens Stock Exchange was ecstatic – managing to close before the IMF announcement.
However unstable the ground on which Athens and our creditors are treading in their negotiations, the ground within the government and the ruling party is even less steady. Divisions, egotism and personal agendas, along with a dangerous indifference toward what will happen if a viable solution is not found, are suspended only in the unanimous belief in SYRIZA that failure will be the exclusive responsibility of our creditors. It is natural that we citizens cannot know what is happening and can only hope for the best. But, on the day after failure, the god who descends upon us may impose solutions that could be unbearable.
