How to react to the ace up Iran’s sleeve
It is obvious that Iran had been looking for a strong card to play. And it found it the moment it really needed it in the 15 British sailors arrested by an Iranian warship after allegedly sailing into «Iranian national waters.» The crucial question now is what exactly Iranian authorities have in mind. Is the capture of the 15 sailors a show of bravado aimed at pressuring the international community and worrying Russia, which co-signed an agreement to impose sanctions upon Iran? Or is it an attempt by Iran to flex its muscles before the governments of Arab countries in the Gulf who are renowned for their pro-US stances and fear the eventuality of falling under the influence of Iranian Shiite overlords? The Iranians have a history of taking foreign citizens hostage. The US political leadership has never forgotten the nightmare it experienced after 60 American employees from the US Embassy in Tehran were taken hostage in November 1979. The current Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is believed to have been among the ringleaders of that hostage taking. Washington’s attempt to free the hostages, in April 1980, was a tragic failure. The US efforts were humiliating and then president Jimmy Carter lost his re-election bid soon afterward. The hostages were eventually released under Ronald Reagan’s presidency after the Ayatollah Khomeini decided that his country had nothing more to gain from further anti-Americanism. Moreover, the sanctions imposed upon Iran had dealt a heavy blow to the country’s economy. But now, the person in Iran who most wants the British sailors to remain hostages is Ahmadinejad. The popularity he once enjoyed has waned following recent local elections which highlighted popular discontent. The case of the British hostages offers the Iranian president the opportunity to become the people’s hero once again, to show himself as the leader who does not hesitate to snub, even humiliate, a major global power. In the meantime, he will have shown the world that Iran needs neither a stick nor a carrot to be up there with the major nuclear powers. For the time being, the USA has opted for a passive role, allowing Britain to handle the crisis alone, so as not to provoke the Iranians. Meanwhile, Britain has sought Turkey’s aid. What should be remembered is that Iran is a special case and if there is anything the West should do it is to exploit its one unique weapon – diplomacy. Only by exercising smart diplomacy, and showing patience where necessary, will the West be able to win over Ahmadinejad and all the mullahs who support him.
