Back to the old blueprint
Even though a decision will not be reached until after the planned July 25 talks between Turkish-Cypriot leader Mehmet Ali Talat and Cypriot President Dimitris Christofias, everything is pointing to negotiations at the highest possible level. The fact that both parties have agreed on the description of a bizonal, bicommunal federation, with a single international identity, a single sovereignty, a single citizenship and with equality for both communities, is not as promising as it appears at first sight. Judging by his statements, Talat will follow in the footsteps of Rauf Denktash and make a looser interpretation of these terms. The two leaders share a common ideological background and a good personal relationship. While this helps, it is not enough. Talat does not have the same political authority as Christofias and his powers are limited by Ankara, which dictates policy. The US and the UK hailed Christofias as the most likely to embrace an Annan-style reunification plan, though he has stated that he is not open to such a solution. And the new round of talks will inevitably be along similar lines. Cyprus’s accession to the EU strengthened the country’s position and automatically entails changes to the Annan blueprint. It did not, however, dissolve the standing diplomatic framework of negotiations. The coexistence of the two communities makes sense only under the conditions of a true federation, free of internal boundaries and the right of intervention. But both Ankara and the Turkish Cypriots reject such a proposal. What is most important is that the UN, steered by the US and the UK, gave up on this idea long ago. For the negotiations to head toward a realistic solution, a strategy has to be forged anew. This, however, is not in the plans of either Christofias or of other Greek-Cypriot leaders. And this is why, despite assurances to the contrary, the likelihood of an Annan-style proposal is not only real, but also very strong.
