Assessing Turkey’s missile test
Two experts offer their views on recent developments in Ankara’s defense industry
Experts Timothy Wright, a research analyst and program administrator for defense and military analysis at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS ), and Uzi Rubin, a defense engineer and expert on missile defense at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), take stock of Turkey’s test-firing of a short-range ballistic missile over the Black Sea on Tuesday.
The consensus appears to be that Tuesday’s launch was an engineering test and it “does not mean that the Tayfun is close to entering service.”
The event allegedly reflects the steps made by Turkey’s domestic defense industry in missile development which, experts estimate, will make Ankara less dependent on outside suppliers, such as the United States.
The experts also agree that Greece’s existing defense systems should be capable of protecting the country against the Tayfun.
What does the test-firing of the Turkish missile mean for Greece?
Timothy Wright: It is important to note that Tuesday’s test-firing does not mean that the Tayfun is close to entering service. Rokestan will very likely need to conduct further test launches before the missile reaches an initial operational capability. Even then, the number of systems Turkey plans to deploy is unknown.
Uzi Rubin: This missile seems to be an updated version of the Bora short-range missile, tested already in 2017, to about the same ranges. I assume the reason for the test of the new version, the Tayfun, was simply to prove the design. Why at this time? Simply because they completed the preparation and were ready to fire at this time. I don’t see any political connection here. This seems to have been an engineering test, and the timing reflected technical considerations, not political considerations.
‘Rokestan will very likely need to conduct further test launches before the missile reaches an initial operational capability’
How does it impact the balance of power in the East Mediterranean?
Timothy Wright: Turkey is one of several states in the Eastern Mediterranean to possess a short-range ballistic missile (SRBM). Greece operates the MGM-140 ATACMS SRBM, while Israel operates a range of ballistic and cruise missile systems. Other states in the Black Sea and Caucasus – including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Romania and Russia – either operate or have procured SRBMs from domestic or foreign suppliers. In that sense, Turkish SRBMs are an additional capability in a crowded field. An important takeaway is that Tuesday’s test-firing signals the progress of Turkey’s domestic defense industry in missile development. Ankara will resultantly be less reliant on external suppliers, such as the United States, in the future.
Uzi Rubin: I don’t see much effect here. As I mentioned, Turkey already had an older version of this missile with the same range capability. Greece has its own short-range ballistic missile the US supplied ATACM. The test of the Tayfun is therefore of little balance of power significance.
Can you trace the source of the technology used by Turkey?
Timothy Wright: Turkey is believed to have collaborated with China in developing some of its ballistic missiles, such as the shorter-range BORA/Khan, which is believed to be a Turkish version of China’s BP-12A.
Uzi Rubin: Turkey has a modern and sophisticated armament industry, with good human resources and modern machinery. They make sophisticated UAVs, ships and land warfare equipment. The technology is largely homegrown.
What counter-measures should Greece be taking?
Timothy Wright: Greece possesses two types of interceptor that could be used for ballistic missile defense; the M901 Patriot PAC-2 and the S-300PMU1 (RS-SA-20 Gargoyle). While both of these systems are upgraded iterations of the initial Patriot and Gargoyle systems respectively, modern ballistic missiles that are capable of endo-atmospheric flight paths and performing maneuvers would likely be challenging for these systems to intercept.
Uzi Rubin: Greece has Patriot air/missile defense systems, which should be adequate against the Tayfun.
