West’s trust with Russia ‘is broken’
German ex-vice chancellor warns of new cold war, impact on Aegean of a Putin victory
Following the Ukraine crisis, the West should be prepared for the presence of a constant threat to the east of its borders that will be tantamount to another cold war, warns former German vice chancellor and foreign minister Joschka Fischer.
Speaking to Kathimerini on the sidelines of an Economist conference in Nicosia, the former minister under Gerhard Schroeder expressed the belief that Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot win the war in Ukraine, but is not ready to negotiate a withdrawal either.
When asked about increasingly tense Greek-Turkish relations, Fischer says that “we should not overestimate Erdogan,” but also urges the European Union and NATO to step in to defuse the tension in the East Mediterranean, while acknowledging that a victory for Russia in Ukraine would have a very negative impact on developments in the Aegean.
The recent mobilization in Russia seems to confirm the assessment that Putin is not achieving his goals on the Ukrainian front. However, some argue that the Russian regime cannot afford to lose this war and may even resort to nuclear weapons. What do you think the outcome of this crisis could possibly be at the end of the day?
There is no way to know the outcome, but I do not think that Putin can win this war. Ukraine is fighting very bravely for its national survival and, in my opinion, Russia’s attempts to blackmail Europe and force it to stop supplying weapons will not work. And Europe cannot be blackmailed by Putin’s nuclear threats. It is too soon to say whether the Russian side has started preparing for a meaningful negotiation, but we are certainly not at that point yet. This is an affair that will drag on for some time yet.
‘We need to do the best we can, as Europeans and with our American friends, in order to calm things down in the Aegean and in the Eastern Mediterranean’
Are you saying that it is entirely up to Russia for any meaningful talks to take place?
A peace deal would certainly require Ukraine, of course, but it is basically up to Putin, who will simply have to withdraw the Russian troops from the Ukrainian territory and accept the international borders that Russia itself is a guarantor power of – and that’s the irony in this whole thing. For the time being, though, the war will continue.
What is the situation before us? A crisis that will end in a reasonable amount of time or will a second cold war follow?
I am afraid that we are heading towards a second cold war. Regardless of the outcome in Ukraine, the trust with Russia has been broken and it will constitute a constant threat east of the borders of NATO and the European Union. The consequences of this, I am afraid, are a new cold war. Here in Europe, we will have to invest much more heavily in our preventive capacity and in our ability to defend ourselves. No matter how it turns out, the situation will be much more of a European problem.
Russian gas has provided Europe with relatively cheap energy for many years. However, Germany especially has come under criticism for becoming dependent on natural gas from an autocratic regime, eventually driving Europe into an energy crisis that will lead it into recession. What are your thoughts?
You are talking to someone who has always been critical of matters. I have already said that you must never put all your eggs in one basket. It’s unwise. But apart from that, Europe has accomplished a lot in the past few months towards reducing its energy dependence and diversifying its energy sources. There is still the question of rates, which, however, are already starting to de-escalate, so this is a positive message. I believe that in the next few years we will secure more new energy sources. I also believe that renewables need to constitute the basic mechanism towards this end, something that would be of significant benefit to Greece given its climate. In any case, we cannot return to being dependent on Russia. That chapter has closed for good.
Putin’s revisionist policy in Ukraine is doubly alarming for Greece, given Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s increasingly aggressive stance in the Eastern Mediterranean. There is the impression that Turkey is constantly testing the limits of its role and obligations as a member of the Western Alliance, to put it mildly. What is your opinion?
Before anything else, let’s just make it clear that Erdogan’s power cannot be compared with Putin’s power. In general, we should not overestimate Erdogan. His goal every single time is to get Turkey invited to the table of the big players. But this is not going to happen. On the one hand, Turkey is a player in that it acts like a bridge between Europe and the Middle East. On the other hand, it is a player with limited power. All the West needs to do is exercise some clever diplomacy with Turkey. Our relationship with Turkey has always been complicated. There are times when things have been better and others when they are not so good. Like it or not, Turkey is what it is, so we need to do the best we can, as Europeans and with our American friends, in order to calm things down in the Aegean and in the Eastern Mediterranean, which is a sensitive and strategic area. We need to reduce the tension and make agreements. We need the United States for this to happen, as they have similar interests in the area. I understand Greece’s problem. Back when I was in the German government, relations between Greece and Turkey were much better than they are today. I understand the reasons, but we need to do everything we can to reduce the tension. And if Putin were to succeed in Ukraine, this would be very bad for the Aegean, as it would serve as an example and possibly prompt others to take a similar course of action.
