Standoff between Kemalists andIslamists over presidential polls
The crisis in Turkey’s negotiations with the European Union and the opposition in advance of the papal visit have taken a back seat to a serious internal crisis that is expected to be a constant cause of tension in 2007. That is, the standoff between Kemalists and Islamists over the expected candidacy of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the presidential elections in the spring. The official announcement of his candidacy is expected to add fuel to a fire that has been simmering for some time now, with unpredictable consequences. For the Kemalists, the question of who will succeed President Ahmet Necdet Sezer is a major constitutional issue. In a Turkey governed by Islamists, albeit with a pro-European mask, the office of the president is the bulwark of old guard Kemalists, who feel that the Erdogan government threatens the secular foundation of the state. Massive reform program In the name of EU accession, the government has indeed undertaken a massive program of reforms, which include reducing the political power of the army by revising the constitutional provisions concerning the National Security Council. On the home front, however, its language and style alarm those who are worried about a possible Islamification of the state. The government is composed of people with a history of speaking out against the secular state and whose wives and daughters wear the veil. The government has proposed the criminalization of adultery and municipalities have introduced restrictions on the consumption of alcohol in certain zones in city centers. Erdogan condemned a European Court ruling that banned the veil at universities, stating that «the Muslim clergy are responsible for matters that relate to religion.» At party meetings, men and women sit separately, presenting an image that looks more like Iran than Turkey and which makes Westernized Turks shudder. Acknowledging that the Kemalist parties will find it hard to get the ruling AKP out of power, since together they do not command enough votes, the Kemalists have rallied around the institutions they see as safeguards of the secular regime. Known as «institutional resistance,» those institutions include the presidency, the upper courts and of, course, the army. The current president, Sezer, is a model of an unyielding Kemalist. If the presidency goes to the opposing side, the «institutional resistance» will have lost one of its pillars. The violent attack last year by a right-wing Islamist on the Council of State, which led to the death of a judge, demonstrated to what extent fanatical Islamists are prepared to go. The attack was intended to punish the court for a ruling that amplified the ban on public servants wearing the veil. The veil is at the heart of the Kemalists’ polemic against Erdogan’s candidacy for president. They object to the prospect of his wife, who wears the veil, entering the presidential mansion. Since the attack in May, rumors have run wild that the army is ready to intervene in order to «avert chaos» should Erdogan win the election. The rumors spread from the streets and cafes to ministries, newspapers and embassies. Ordinary citizens openly say they hope the army will intervene «to avoid worse.» The rumors got into the latest issue of Newsweek. Zeyno Baran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, said that there was a 50-50 chance of a coup in 2007. She claimed that «senior Turkish officials» had made it clear that democracy was a respected value, the army might «be obliged to intervene to protect the secular state, without which there can be no democracy in a Muslim state.» Baran commented that, according to senior officers, «the EU’s core demand – more civilian control of the military – would inevitably produce an Islamic Turkey.» The majority of analysts do not predict a repetition of the coup «by memorandum» of February 28, 1998, when the then military majority on the National Security Council removed Islamist Necmettin Erbakan from the post of prime minister. Nobody seems to believe there will be tanks in the street, as on September 12, 1980. If there is a coup it will be a «light» coup. The polls are revealing: Just over half of Turks questioned (51 percent) say they do not want Erdogan to run for president. The reason – to avoid tension.
