Scenarios for our future
Given that the country has entered a pre-election period, here are a few post-election scenarios based on three possible results.
In the first scenario New Democracy succeeds in narrowing the margin with SYRIZA, reducing the difference between the two to a minimum. Prime Minister Antonis Samaras announces he got the message and the current government continues its mandate until a new president of the republic is due to be elected in 2015, or as long as it can hold on politically. How PASOK will fare in the upcoming election is also crucial, whether on its own or under a broader, center-left umbrella. If this portion of the political system ends up unrepresented in the next European Parliament, the government will be held hostage to whatever developments take place in the broader center-left.
In the second scenario, SYRIZA wins, but by the kind of percentage that ND can manage politically. Some say it could be around 4 percent, others see it slightly higher. In this case, and provided that PASOK or whatever it evolves into survives, the government may still continue its mandate, aware however that it’s only for a few months.
Thirdly, SYRIZA creates a last-minute dynamic, ditto for the parties to the right of ND, leading to a sensational difference between ND and SYRIZA. In this case Samaras will call a national election, according to those who know him well. This is because he knows he will be unable to close the gap or contain the dynamic of desperate, whining MPs following a defeat.
Predicting the position that the country’s partners and creditors will adopt depending on the outcome is also interesting. If Samaras finds himself neck and neck with Tsipras he might have a good chance of claiming a considerable debt deal and a new supervision model in June. If he loses with a small difference it will be hard to move on with the prerequisites for a final deal with the lenders. If he loses by a considerable percentage the partners will keep their cards close, or do some serious hedging, knowing that they will face Tsipras at the negotiating table. In this case they will say, “Nothing for Greeece until we find out what happend politically and who our interlocutor is.”
The question of who will actually vote is also crucial. Even more crucial is what percentage of the vote will go to the extreme right of the political spectrum, especially Golden Dawn.
All those involved in local politics at the grassroots level feel that the idea of outlawing the ultranationalist party is just plain silly – not merely in political terms – and insist it’s not an ephemeral phenomenon. One thing that is certain is that anyone involved in local politics will not be bored in the upcoming months.
