Electoral gains?
It is only natural that rapid developments in the fight against terrorism and the apparently complete overthrow of November 17 should be the focus of political debate, with PASOK believing this achievement enough to turn the climate in its favor and the New Democracy party believing it should be fully prepared to deal with «unexpected» political developments. So the parties’ summer mobilization, declared in view of October’s local elections, is assuming a wider and more crucial political significance, since the government is claiming to have regained lost ground as well as the political initiative. Certain PASOK cadres, taking as a given the complete annihilation of November 17, believe that «the triumph over terrorism» could be its party’s main weapon in the next parliamentary elections. This view is based on the observation that the government has no chance of a more impressive achievement, in the economy or foreign policy say, in the 18 months until the end of its term. However, it is also being pointed out that any political exploitation of this success will be short term. According to a PASOK cadre, just as the previous Simitis administration managed to overcome the Ocalan fiasco (that gave ND an eight-point lead) within two to three months, the triumph over terrorism will be just as short-lived. It is likely that these considerations might lead to the temptation to hold a snap election in October along with the local elections, on the basis that in a parliamentary election, people vote «responsibly,» while in parallel local elections, they can register their dissatisfaction more painlessly. Naturally these thoughts, as yet not widespread within PASOK, are not unknown, nor does ND see them as insignificant. However, ND has differing views over the electoral repercussions of the November 17 case, above all regarding the criteria the voters will bring with them to the ballot box. It is being claimed that November 17 had never been a real problem for the broader electoral base in the same way as organized crime was. ND continues to believe that the poor economic situation and stock market collapse, for which the government has been blamed on account of the stock market games that ensnared hundreds of thousands of investors, will prove the main reason for PASOK’s likely loss of power. ND feels that perhaps the stock market’s fall from 4,500 units during the previous elections to the current 2,200 is a bigger time bomb waiting to go off on election eve. ND is therefore not only unafraid of a snap election, but is probably looking forward to such an eventuality, which it is expecting PASOK to carry out as a desperate move. So in the next few weeks, if not days, the rooting out of November 17 will assume major political dimensions. It is not unlikely that the police thriller will be followed by a political one.
