BUSINESS

IMF revises medium-term growth rate downward

EIRINI CHRYSOLORA

TAGS: Finance

The International Monetary Fund has upwardly revised its short-term forecasts while lowering its medium-term forecasts for Greek growth in its October 2018 World Economic Outlook, which will be published on Tuesday in the context of its annual meeting in Bali, Indonesia this week. Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos will also be present at the event.

The IMF now expects next year’s growth rate to come to 2.4 percent, against 1.8 percent in April. It is therefore closer to the government’s forecast for 2.5 percent growth, and the latest projection by the European Commission (in July) for 2.3 percent. However, it has considerably reduced its economic growth forecast for 2023 to 1.2 percent, from 1.9 percent in its previous report.

This figure is particularly worrying when combined with the special reference in the same report to countries that have experienced periods of deep recession, as Greece is the sole member of the European Union to have experienced a more than 20 percent per capita decline in its gross domestic product in the last 50 years: From 2010 to 2013, per capita GDP fell 26 percent in Greece, and the medium-term prospects point to a very slow recovery.

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