Once again, Cyprus stands in Turkey’s way toward Europe

Erdogan will have to explain that extending customs deal does not mean recognition

A Turkish woman walks across Saray Square in the center of Turkish-occupied Nicosia, Cyprus, this weekend. The lingering Cyprus issue will temper Ankara’s EU euphoria.

By Burak Bekdil - Kathimerini English Edition

Everyone looked like a winner after Friday’s historic EU summit. If there was a genuine winner, though, it was diplomacy. Otherwise, how could the final statement have pleased Tassos Papadopoulos and Rauf Denktash at the same time? How would it have been possible, without skillfully crafted wording, to please Ankara, Athens, Brussels, Berlin, Paris, London, Vienna, Rome, Copenhagen, Washington, the Arab capitals and probably half of the other hemisphere?

The final statement is like a fairy tale, a happy ending for all. Thousands of Turks, waving Turkish and EU flags, took to the streets on Saturday to welcome the “Conqueror of Europe,” their prime minister, in scenes perhaps too grotesque for a celebration a la Europe. Probably few in the chanting crowd knew what was there to celebrate.

Mr Rauf Denktash, the Turkish-Cypriot leader, thanked Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for not “selling out the Turkish Cypriots” and for “standing firm in his bargaining with the Europeans.” A few miles to the south, Cypriot President Papadopoulos remained confident that the strings attached to October 3 would automatically guarantee what he wanted.

No doubt, after over 40 years in the EU’s waiting room, a date for the start of formal entry talks is a victory. But the strings attached to the much-wanted date may put off the start of talks or suspend them. Even if the talks open, membership may never take place, and if Turkey eventually joins the club, it may only get a second-grade contract.

The trouble is, the Turks only want the gains from membership, and not the pains. They are not and probably will not be prepared to give up the sacred sovereignty which does not fit in with club rules. For example, different crowds with different intentions will probably take to the streets when Turkey will be required to negotiate with the PKK, or ponder autonomy for the Kurds, or recognize the Armenian genocide, or agree to not-so-favorable conditions over the Aegean territorial disputes with Greece.

And that’s not all. For the time being, the Turks shrug off the possibility of permanent safeguards restricting the free movement of Turkish workers and Turkish access to EU regional funds and farm subsidies. But such discriminatory terms and conditions which violate EU law will be really explosive as talks mature.

It is perhaps too early to sit down and ponder. Inevitably, by the time Turkey joins the EU there will be a very different EU and a very different Turkey. For example, a falling birthrate across the EU means a shrinking and aging population, raising the specter that there will not be enough workers to pay for increasingly burdened pension systems.

In contrast, Turkey’s population is young and growing (set to reach about 80 million by 2015, with more than two-thirds under 35 years of age). Demographics per se can change the terms and conditions of Turkish entry in the future. But the shorter-term problem will, once again, be Cyprus.

On December 17, Turkey pledged to extend its 1963 association agreement with the then-EEC, known as the Ankara protocol, to 10 new member states including Cyprus, before the start of accession talks — a de facto recognition by Ankara of Cyprus. On the other hand, Mr Erdogan has repeatedly said that Turkey would not recognize Cyprus, directly or indirectly, until there is a comprehensive settlement on the divided island. In nine months’ time, it will be extremely difficult for Mr Erdogan to keep both promises.

Mr Papadopoulos has a point when he says that no one can object if Cyprus vetoed the start of membership talks with Turkey on October 3 if Turkey did not recognize Cyprus. How will it be possible for Mr Erdogan to overcome a likely Cypriot veto without raising a dust storm in his homeland?

The immediate answer is a return to the UN-sponsored table for a fresh round of negotiations. But will the Greek Cypriots have any genuine reason to “share sovereignty” with their one-time neighbors when the slow-fuse time bomb ticks for Ankara?

Obviously, Mr Erdogan will be sweating next summer when he has to explain to millions of dubious Turks that the extension of the Ankara protocol to Cyprus and nine other member states will not mean recognition. Alternatively, his government may try to extend the protocol “with an acknowledgement of the division of Cyprus,” but, again, that will probably fail to block a Cypriot veto. Of course, there is going to be a massive media campaign in Turkey in the runup to October, and in favor of the start of talks “despite everything,” but that may be politically costly for Mr Erdogan’s government.

On Saturday, the Conqueror of Europe was probably wearing one of his last smiles over EU affairs. He successfully tackled the easy part of a long journey. But the far more difficult part remains ahead. Once again, Cyprus stands in the way between Ankara and Brussels. The summit has not resolved the dispute, but put it on ice for another nine months.