Sunday December 21, 2014 Search
Weather | Athens
17o C
10o C
News
Business
Comment
Life
Sports
Community
Survival Guide
Greek Edition
External factors threatening Greek recovery

 Impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict and uncertain European economic outlook feared by officials
Ukraine's soldiers during parade rehearsal in central Khreshchatyk street in Kiev, Ukraine, Friday.

By Sotiris Nikas

At a time when the Greek economy is displaying what appear to be early signs of recovery, following six years of deep recession, a series of external factors are threatening to undermine the effort being made.

Developments between Russia and Ukraine could spark a number of negative factors for the national economy. Greek officials have also begun to openly express concern about the overall European economic outlook.

Amid the distress, both the Finance Ministry and the country’s creditor representatives, or troika, are re-examining the forecasts.

The Greek economy is expected to expand by 0.6 percent in 2014, while a growth figure of 2.9 percent has been forecast for 2015. The ongoing geopolitical developments are not expected to affect the national economy in 2014, even though the Russian embargo on many agricultural products has already gone into force. The same level of certainty, however, cannot be presumed for 2015.

Finance Ministry officials admit that a series of factors are posing a threat to the economic growth figure predicted for 2015.

The Russian ban on a number of agricultural products has significantly dented the country’s farming exports, both current and those anticipated in the coming months. This threat carries indirect implications. For example, Russian traders, expected to cover market needs with supply from other regions during the embargo, will not necessarily return to their original suppliers when the embargo is lifted. The medium-term fiscal plan foresees a 5.2 percent exports increase for 2015.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is also raising energy-related concerns. Greece depends on Russia, via Ukraine, for 60 percent of the country’s natural gas supply. Should the conflict intensify, Greece would be forced to turn to more expensive solutions, liquefied natural gas being the most probable, which would affect the trade deficit figure.

The 0.2 percent contraction of the German economy in the second quarter of 2014, along with a slight downward revision of the previous quarter’s growth figure, adds to Greece’s concerns over the prospects of Europe as a whole and the impact this would have on the national economy.

Another concern, geopolitical instability, would affect Greek tourism. The end-of-year tally for Russian tourists in Greece is expected to reach 1.3 million, their total spending figure forecast to exceed 1 billion euro.

It has become quite clear that wider developments in Europe are directly affecting the Greek economy. Any negative impact on the GDP figure would start a domino effect of consequences. If GDP growth forecasts are not achieved, this would make negotiations with the troika toward an easing of fiscal measures, as well as further debt relief, more difficult.

ekathimerini.com , Friday August 22, 2014 (22:16)  
Workers rush to get early retirement
Piraeus Containter Terminal goes from strength to strength
Moscovici: Creditor inspections to become less frequent and ‘lighter’
Property capital gains tax halt
Environment Ministry to reconsider controversial bill
The government over the weekend appeared to backpedal on proposed amendments widely seen as compromising legislation protecting Greek forests as well as Plaka, Athens’s old quarter. The bill...
Corfu to host country’s first hydroplane strip
Merchant Marine Minister Miltiades Varvitsiotis and Deputy Infrastructure and Transport Minister Michalis Papadopoulos have signed a decision paving the way for the country’s first hydroplan...
Inside News
BASKETBALL
Explosive Barca unfazed by Panathinaikos, bomb scare
Panathinaikos lost 80-67 at home to Barcelona on Friday in a rather meaningless game at the end of the first group stage of the Euroleague, but the encounter will be remembered for the bomb ...
SOCCER
Abidal cuts short playing career at Olympiakos
Former France and Barcelona defender Eric Abidal announced his retirement from football on Friday, a day before his last match. Abidal said he will finish after playing for Olympiakos agains...
Inside Sports
COMMENTARY
The big picture
In his second term, US President Barack Obama is taking steps to enshrine his legacy and solidify America’s standing in the 21st century. His recent decision to normalize relations between t...
EDITORIAL
Get your facts straight
The danger that political discourse in Greece will sink to the basest levels of vulgarity is already more than apparent from the allegations we have heard bandied about over recent days. The...
Inside Comment
SPONSORED LINK: FinanzNachrichten.de
SPONSORED LINK: BestPrice.gr
 RECENT NEWS
1. Environment Ministry to reconsider controversial bill
2. Corfu to host country’s first hydroplane strip
3. Political upheaval sharpens after bribe claims with threats and insinuations
4. Police gets new communications system
5. Most Greeks say they recycle daily
6. Probe into revenues of 2 mln euros in Halkidiki municipality
more news
Today
This Week
1. Get your facts straight
2. The big picture
3. Political upheaval sharpens after bribe claims with threats and insinuations
4. Environment Ministry to reconsider controversial bill
5. Changes on E9 property declarations possible until end-year
6. Police gets new communications system
Today
This Week
1. Samaras summons bond vigilantes with euro exit talk
2. A friendly yet firm message from Pierre Moscovici
3. Europe's drama in Greece needs final act to avoid tragedy
4. High stakes
5. On the edge but not gutless
6. Gap between SYRIZA and New Democracy closing, says poll
   Find us ...
  ... on
Twitter
     ... on Facebook   
About us  |  Subscriptions  |  Advertising  |  Contact us  |  Athens Plus  |  RSS  |   
Copyright © 2014, H KAΘHMEPINH All Rights Reserved.