Foreign observers expect Greece to issue sovereign bonds worth 10-12 billion euros next year, an amount close to what sources say the Public Debt Management Agency is about to announce in late December.
The European Central Bank decisions next month on Greece’s position in its quantitative easing program after the end of PEPP in March are not expected to alter Greece’s strategy for next year, nor will the recent rise in bond yields.
Danske Bank estimates Greece will draw €12 billion from the markets in 2022, with its bond repayments estimated at €4 billion. Citigroup expects bond sales of €10 billion in a total of six forays, including he anticipated issue of the first “green” bond next fall.
The two companies note that ECB support in 2022 will be smaller than this and last year (with Frankfurt buying a total of €33.5 billion of Greek bonds in 2020-2021). Still, Danske projects the ECB will purchase €10 billion of Greek bonds, through the PEPP and the QE program to succeed it.
European bond markets received a significant boost yesterday from a statement by ECB President Christine Lagarde, saying that it is highly unlikely Frankfurt will raise its interest rates next year.