As our shorelines recede by 1 to 1.2 meters on average per year, northern Crete and the eastern Aegean are especially threatened
Efstratios Doukakis, an associate professor at the National Technical University of Athens’s School of Topography and Maritime Engineering. The Greek coast is receding on average by 1 to 1.2 meters a year. These were the findings of research conducted by the NTUA Topography and Maritime Engineering School, which has collected data, and studied and compared images of the Greek coastal zone since 1945 using more than 3,000 photographs taken from the air, a large number of maps and satellite pictures. As Efstratios Doukakis, the professor who led the research team, pointed out, sandy beaches with a low gradient throughout Greece – with the exception of remote and rocky coasts which have not been studied as erosion is very slow – are affected. «Out of the 15,500 kilometers of Greek coastline, about 7,500 km is of sandy consistency and with a low gradient,» explained Doukakis. «We have studied about 1,000 km, more than 13 percent, which allows us to draw a safe conclusion both statistically and scientifically for the rest. We will be able to estimate with the aid of mathematical models where the coastline will be in 2050 and 2100.» Are changes to the Greek coastline linked to climatic changes? We must note that climatic changes are normal if naturally caused. The receding coastline is not exclusively linked to climate. There are geological factors, such as sudden subsidence and earthquakes, which operate independently. Another factor is increased land erosion. Due to carbon dioxide emissions the temperature of the planet is rising and as a result the water in the oceans is expanding. The deregulation of the atmosphere’s thermostat has changed the circulation of the oceans and has produced extreme phenomena such as typhoons and storm surges with higher, more energetic and frequent waves. In the 1950s it was unheard of for winds in the Aegean to exceed 9 to 10 Beaufort. Now we hear of winds reaching 14 Beaufort at least twice a year. Three years ago there was a storm surge in Marathokambos on the island of Samos with waves as high as 3 meters. Which areas of the Greek coast are most vulnerable and will concern us in the future? River deltas, airports on the seafront such as in Corfu and Alexandroupolis, Porto Lagos and Vistonida Lake, which in a few years’ time will become a bay in the Thracian Sea. The plight of the coastal wetlands is severe, in particular Kotichi in the western Peloponnese. Finally, the western Thermaic Gulf, northern Crete and the islands of the eastern Aegean are also under threat. There are places in Kos which are receding at a rate of 2 to 2.5 meters a year and in Rhodes there is a huge loss of land area every year. Is the receding coastline linked to rising sea levels caused by climatic changes? Are there data available for the character of Greek coasts? Predictions have been made for each area. We cannot draw any general conclusions when there are only 18 tidal recordings for 15,500 km of coastline. The information is extremely limited. There are only six wave measuring instruments for all of the Greek seas – and waves are an indicator of climate change – and in areas that are marked as military zones there is no access to maps. Research is therefore difficult. What are the consequences of the receding land? One of the effects is on the water we drink and use for irrigation. When the sea advances over land, it enters the coastal channels through which fresh water travels, forcing it to recede further inland. In the Bay of Nafplion, for example, there are wells which were used by farmers in the past to pump water for cultivation and which have now completely dried up. What must be clear is that when the sea rises 10 centimeters it does not advance over the land just by 10 cm. Due to extensive erosion the land recedes much more, usually a hundred times the rise in the level of the sea. If the sea rises 1 meter the land will recede 100 meters. What will happen to coastal tourist areas where there are hotels and houses? The coast at the moment is where the waves break on the shore. The law stipulates that there must be no construction 50 meters behind this for communal and military purposes. If the coast recedes 50 meters then in areas like Kokkari in Samos, constructions right on the shoreline will have to move back from the seafront plus another 50 meters before construction is possible. Have any measures been taken by the state? Greece is in a complete trance. Often a minister or secretary attends an international conference and is sometimes enthralled or alarmed by what is said, and he or she promises to form a team to examine the issue. But the following day the ministerial offices are closed and no one conducts any research. What needs to be done? First of all we need a map designating areas that are under threat and showing the extent of the risk so that the necessary measures can be taken. New construction regulations must be implemented because today an owner of a plot of land can build legally where there will be sea in the next 50 years. These owners should not be eligible for tax waivers, loans or insurance coverage. The Greek government must think where these people will go, how to address the problems of expropriation due to climatic changes. Even if these proposals are implemented, will we be able to avert the danger or the harm that has been done? The climate is like a car – it doesn’t stop right away when you step on the brake. What we are trying to say is «save the planet for the 22nd century, as the 21st has finished.» The only option at the moment is to save energy and reduce pollution, but we need to start now, even though we have delayed, for the sake of future generations.
