Bakoyannis walks a tightrope in US talks
The geostrategic tug of war between the US and Russia over the transport of energy fuel to Europe and over weapons supply systems overshadows Foreign Minister Dora Bakoyannis’s visit to Washington this week for talks with her US counterpart Condoleezza Rice. Right now, Washington wants Europe to reduce its dependence on Russia for energy sources. There is also uncertainty in Greek-Turkish relations, following NATO’s cancellation of its participation in a planned military exercise in the northeastern Aegean due to Turkish calls to demilitarize the island of Aghios Efstratios (Athens saw the decision as breaching international law and its national sovereignty) and the repeated postponements of Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul’s visit to Greece. Also in the balance are regional issues that have a direct impact on Greece, such as the dispute surrounding the name of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), the next phase in the Cyprus problem and the final status of Kosovo. Another issue Bakoyannis will be discussing – which is not of a geopolitical nature but of major importance to Greeks – is Greece’s demand to be included in those countries whose citizens do not require a visa to visit the US. Following effective efforts by Greek-American organizations, prospects are for a successful outcome in this issue. A meeting with the leadership of the world’s superpower always has a political dimension on the home front, particularly in view of Bakoyannis’s recent difficulties in her relationship with Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis. So apart from promoting Greece’s positions, the minister hopes to reap political capital from her talks with Rice and from the brief greeting she is to receive from US President George W. Bush during the annual event held at the White House to celebrate Greek Independence Day. Bakoyannis will also try to obtain political mileage out of her dinner with Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi, a meeting arranged by Greek-American businessman Angelo Tsakopoulos, a Pelosi supporter. Energy. The US is skeptical about the furthering of Greece’s energy transactions with Russia and is promoting Azerbaijan as an alternative energy source. Hoping to turn Greece into a transport hub for petroleum and gas, Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis has chosen to play the Russia card and within that context he is examining the potential for transporting Russian gas via a Turkey-Greece-Italy pipeline, despite opposition from the US. If the issue is handled properly, and with the involvement of American firms where appropriate, it could bring Greece economic and geopolitical benefits without seriously rocking its relationship with the US. Nevertheless, Bakoyannis will be walking a tightrope in Washington. The dilemma will be even greater if NATO asks Athens to take US anti-missile systems. Terrorism. Bakoyannis’s trump card in Washington will be the fact that, in contrast to other politicians both from the ruling New Democracy and from PASOK, she is seen as a credible interlocutor on this international issue that is so sensitive for the US. That’s partly due to her own family tragedy (her first husband Pavlos Bakoyannis was killed by the November 17 terrorist group) as well as the stance she has taken in public. So much was clear during her address to senators and members of the House of Representatives last September. In her talks with American officials she will be discussing the recent rocket attack on the US Embassy in Athens. According to US Ambassador Charles Ries, cooperation is proceeding at a satisfactory pace but the US is expecting tangible results – the Americans want the Greeks to arrest those responsible and to disintegrate the Revolutionary Struggle organization who claimed responsibility for the attack. Greek-Turkish relations. The repeated postponements of Gul’s visit and the recent issue over Aghios Efstratios have cast a shadow on Greece’s relations with its neighbor. Bakoyannis has much invested in improving those relations, which Washington recognizes, supports and encourages. Last year in Istanbul, she agreed to confidence-building measures and looked forward to a new, similar announcement during Gul’s projected visit to Athens. She may have counted on Gul’s promotion to prime minister or president of Turkey and all that implied for her own political future. All the same, the postponement of Gul’s visit scheduled for last December happened on her watch. Cyprus. Attention is now focused on Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos’s brave decision to begin exploration for petroleum in the economic zone south of the Cypriot Republic. Papadopoulos is planning to assign some of the exploration to American firms for obvious political reasons. Bakoyannis will ask for Ankara to be held in check, while Rice is expected to press for a resumption of talks as well as direct trade with Turkish Cypriots. Still, with elections coming up in Turkey, Greece and Cyprus, no real progress can be expected before March of next year. FYROM. Greece’s strong card will be its ability to block the accession of FYROM to NATO and the European Union, something which Karamanlis has warned and – to the disappointment of Skopje – has been met with quiet understanding in Washington. Both Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza, in a recent interview with Kathimerini, and the State Department spokesman have said that in NATO decisions are unanimous and that Greece has the right to veto any issue that affected it. Kosovo. UN mediator Martti Ahtisaari has submitted his proposal to the UN secretary-general and the matter has been referred to the Security Council, where Russia’s position will be decisive. Americans and Europeans want this issue closed, but Kosovo’s ethnic Serbs and Albanians are not willing to agree. What would be virtually «independence under international supervision» has been rejected by Belgrade. Rice is to push for an immediate solution, while Bakoyannis is to emphasize Greece’s constructive role and ask for more time so as to avert an fresh crisis. Visas. For some time Greece has been pushing for inclusion in the US’s visa waiver program and considerable progress has been made in this direction. Last Tuesday the Senate plenary passed an amendment regarding countries such as Greece, while President Bush has referred to 13 specific countries, including Greece and Cyprus, as possible candidates for inclusion. A few days ago the American Hellenic Educational Progressive Association (AHEPA), the largest and oldest Greek-American organization, wrote to Bush about this. Bakoyannis is to have a dinner with Bush’s homeland security adviser, Frances Fragos Townsend, who is of Greek origin. Middle East. The foreign minister is to attempt to keep Greece in the game, even to a limited extent, in Middle East developments, something she has succeeded in doing so far to a certain extent, helped by Greece’s position on the UN Security Council.
