Dilemmas at the ballot box
Opinion polls may be missing something. It would not be the first time, especially in their representation of the anti-systemic vote. However, let’s assume that their predictions are accurate when they show ruling New Democracy leading SYRIZA by a comfortable margin as the power of PASOK-KINAL remains stagnant. How can this be explained? The answer largely lies with the deeply ambivalent middle-ground voter: They are angry at the institutional violations, the arrogance of certain ministers, and other phenomena that defeated the expectations they once had of the conservative administration.
This type of voter is, above all, allergic to turmoil. They do not want fresh political experimentation, or a coalition government between SYRIZA and MeRA25 chief Yanis Varoufakis, or the country being held to ransom by an unstable government because of the simple proportional representation system. PASOK’s Nikos Androulakis has failed to convince voters that he represents a serious alternative. His talk about whether he would rule in a coalition with New Democracy or SYRIZA remains nebulous. Meanwhile, he has not shown to have the political personnel or the positions that could make him a reliable coalition partner.
For his part, Alexis Tsipras hardly seems to have severed ties with the radical party base. Despite his best efforts, because of certain positions or individuals, he fails when it comes to making a positive impression on a large chunk of public opinion. As the bonus to police and coast guard officers showed, he is obviously in a dilemma. The problem is that when he finally finds the courage to break some eggs, his move is unconvincing or comes too late.
However, Tsipras has also lost another trump card: namely, a part of society that he thought Mitsotakis would never “take care of,” or at least not to the degree that the SYRIZA leader would. The coronavirus and the energy crisis have, however, considerably weakened this narrative. A lot of people have received a lot of money and aid in recent years.
This is what exists in the mind of a centrist voter who may, again, feel angry or even trapped. However, the voter who wants stability and abhors adventure votes for a government and prime minister at the end of the day. There are, of course, similar voters on the right side of the political spectrum. The difference is that they are less cerebral about things than centrists, their anger is anti-systemic and often leads to a cultural divorce with the parties in power – New Democracy in this particular instance. They are a small but critical mass of voters that polls or analysts can rarely accurately predict when it comes to who they will vote for.
